Research on the Fluctuation Trend of the Spread of New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic under Non-Strict Prevention and Control Conditions: Analysis Based on the Data of India’s Epidemic

Abstract

After a long time of joint efforts, the Covid-19 pandemic in some countries and regions has been effectively controlled, but since April 2021, the outbreak of the epidemic in India has posed new challenges for the prevention and control of the global epidemic. How to understand and interpret the rebound trend of the epidemic in India is an important reference for other regions to prevent and control the epidemic. Based on time-series analysis, this paper uses the system dynamics epidemic model to treat the population in the region as a whole and decomposes the spread of the Covid-19 in India into 4 fluctuating transmission processes. These processes show that the spread of the Covid-19 may have annual periodic characteristics and long-term trends. There is a critical period of about 45 days before the outbreak of the epidemic. The global prevention and control requires the joint efforts of all countries to end as soon as possible.