The emergence of a new wintertime Arctic energy balance regime

O. Miyawaki, T. Shaw, M. Jansen
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Abstract

The modern Arctic climate during wintertime is characterized by sea-ice cover, a strong surface temperature inversion, and the absence of convection. Correspondingly, the energy balance in the Arctic atmosphere today is dominated by atmospheric radiative cooling and advective heating, so-called radiative advective equilibrium. Climate change in the Arctic involves sea-ice melt, vanishing of the surface inversion, and emergence of convective precipitation. Here we show climate change in the Arctic involves the emergence of a new energy balance regime characterized by radiative cooling, convective heating, and advective heating, so-called radiative convective advective equilibrium. A time-dependent decomposition of the atmospheric energy balance shows the regime transition is associated with enhanced radiative cooling followed by decreased advective heating. The radiative cooling response consists of a robust clear-sky greenhouse effect and a transient cloud contribution that varies across models. Mechanism-denial experiments in an aquaplanet with and without interactive sea ice highlight the important role of sea-ice melt in both the radiative cooling and advective heating responses. The results show that climate change in the Arctic involves temporally evolving mechanisms, suggesting that an emergent constraint based on historical data or trends may not constrain the long-term response.
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一种新的冬季北极能量平衡机制的出现
现代北极冬季气候的特点是海冰覆盖、强烈的地表逆温和缺乏对流。相应地,今天北极大气中的能量平衡以大气辐射冷却和平流加热为主,即所谓的辐射平流平衡。北极的气候变化包括海冰融化、地表逆温消失和对流降水的出现。在这里,我们表明北极的气候变化涉及到以辐射冷却、对流加热和平流加热为特征的新的能量平衡机制的出现,即所谓的辐射对流平流平衡。大气能量平衡的随时间分解表明,这种状态转变与辐射冷却增强以及随后的平流加热减少有关。辐射冷却响应包括强劲的晴空温室效应和在不同模式下变化的瞬态云贡献。在有和没有相互作用海冰的水行星上进行的机制否认实验强调了海冰融化在辐射冷却和平流加热响应中的重要作用。结果表明,北极的气候变化涉及时间演化机制,这表明基于历史数据或趋势的紧急约束可能不会约束长期响应。
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