Backward/forward probabilistic network state estimation tool and its real world validation

Abstract

Increasing penetration of renewable energy sources into conventional power networks causes increase of the uncertainty level which reveals new research and technological challenges. High fidelity network state estimation in environment with significant share of intermittent energy sources is required for planning and operation activities performed by system operators. Probabilistic load flow methods stand for promising estimation techniques which can be applicable for environment with strong presence of uncertainty. Paper describes an estimation tool based on probabilistic backward/forward method. Special emphasis is given to the description of particular components of the estimation tool. Reliability and robustness of the tool is demonstrated on the results from real world validation.