Conclusion

Abstract

The chapter shows that the impact of populism on democracy depends on the variety of populism in power: the worst outcomes in democratic performance are found under unconstrained populism. By contrast, when populism in power is constrained, democracy will largely survive. To support this claim, the chapter traces two democracy indices under populism in power in the Andes, which as expected, show a marked deterioration of democracy under unconstrained populist governments, while remaining largely unchanged under contained populism. The central proposition of the theory—unconstrained populism in power leads to regime change whereas constrained populism does not—is then explored in cases beyond the Andes. The chapter finds examples of unconstrained populism in Nicaragua under Daniel Ortega and Hungary under Viktor Orbán, their governments having transitioned away from democracy. In other cases where populism was constrained, that was not the case.