A Discussion on Geodynamic Modeling Methodology: Inferences from Numerical Models in the Anatolian Plate

Abstract

Numerical models have found widespread use in geosciences, mainly due to high-resolution datasets and the development of supercomputing facilities with powerful data processing and storage capabilities during the past two decades. Instantaneous and time-dependent geodynamic modeling studies were carried out in many regions of the Alpine-Himalayan orogenic belt, including the Anatolian Plate, to investigate mantle dynamics such as lower lithosphere deformation, upper mantle flow, and their surface implications. This study focuses on the instantaneous numerical modeling technique by considering multidimensional thermomechanical models in the Central and East Anatolian plateaus. To this end, conventional geodynamic modeling processes are explained with a conceptual flow chart that shows a feed-forward backpropagation modeling architecture which is nonlinearly fed by a large parameter space. While addressing a complex natural phenomenon controlled by variables on a wide range of space-time scales, the limitations as well as advantages of numerical models are analyzed. In addition to conventional techniques, systematic data improvement is discussed as a new strategy in data/parameter-dependent numerical model design through an iterative process based on the Grounded Theory method for the construction of an explanatory theory from the model. This involves not refinement but (re)construction of the data (i.e., measurement/analysis/scaling) as an effective way to reveal theory/information grounded in data. It is speculated that this procedure, which includes problem-oriented data reconstruction accompanying the numerical modeling process, may provide an integrated perspective for instantaneous numerical modelling.