Will reducing the burden of extracurricular tutoring raise fertility willingness in China? Five policy suggestions

IF 3.5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI:10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.11.001
Jing Zhou , Huashuai Chen
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Abstract

The average education expenditure of each child accounts for more than half of the family's per capita income in China and has held back the fertility intentions. Will the decree on unloading the burden of extracurricular tutoring raise future fertility willingness in China? Using China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) cross-sectional data in 2018, we simulate the effects of reduction in extracurricular tutoring hours and expenses on fertility behavior. The results reveal that extracurricular tutoring explains low fertility rate in China. The mothers in the one-child families are less likely to have a second birth due to participation in job markets and threshold in their career. The willingness of giving birth to a second child is remarkably increased along with the reduction in extracurricular training activities, especially for urbans. Reduction in tutoring expenditure plays a bigger role in adults' second-child desire than do tutoring hours.

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减轻课外辅导负担会提高中国的生育意愿吗?五项政策建议
在中国,每个孩子的平均教育支出占家庭人均收入的一半以上,这抑制了生育意愿。解除课外辅导负担的法令会提高中国未来的生育意愿吗?利用2018年中国家庭面板研究(CFPS)的横截面数据,我们模拟了课外辅导时间和费用减少对生育行为的影响。结果表明,课外辅导是中国低生育率的主要原因。由于参与就业市场和职业门槛,独生子女家庭的母亲生二胎的可能性较小。随着课外培训活动的减少,生育二孩的意愿显著增加,尤其是在城市。与家教时间相比,家教费用的减少对成人二孩意愿的影响更大。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
6.20
自引率
11.40%
发文量
76
期刊介绍: The Journal of Policy Modeling is published by Elsevier for the Society for Policy Modeling to provide a forum for analysis and debate concerning international policy issues. The journal addresses questions of critical import to the world community as a whole, and it focuses upon the economic, social, and political interdependencies between national and regional systems. This implies concern with international policies for the promotion of a better life for all human beings and, therefore, concentrates on improved methodological underpinnings for dealing with these problems.
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