Determinants of commuting flows in Germany

Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI:10.22394/1993-7601-2023-71-99-127

Anastasiia Piliuk, Elena Semerikova, Andreas Nastansky

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Abstract

The paper studies commuting flows between German regions. Using panel data of 400 German regions from 2013 to 2019 we evaluate the effect of the wide range of indicators determining the magnitude of the commuting flows: demographic factors, indicators of the labour and real estate markets, welfare variables, social and educational system characteristics, etc. We employ the gravity model analysis with Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood, allowing us to consider even the absence of commuters between regions. The novelty of the research is that the full structure of commuting flows, including the direction, is analyzed at the aggregated district level. In addition to other papers devoted to the economics of the labor market and focused mostly on individual data and selected determinants, we investigate a wide range of possible factors and conclude that the main macroeconomic factors determining both the intensity and direction of commuting flows: population, unemployment rate, cost of leasing housing and the number of companies per 10000 people. We also find that commuting flows between regions in the same land are 202% higher than between regions from different lands, and commuting flows between neighbouring regions are 414.5% higher than between regions without a common border.

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德国通勤流量的决定因素

本文研究了德国各地区之间的通勤流动。利用2013年至2019年德国400个地区的面板数据，我们评估了决定通勤流量大小的各种指标的影响:人口因素、劳动力和房地产市场指标、福利变量、社会和教育系统特征等。我们使用泊松伪极大似然的重力模型分析，允许我们考虑区域之间没有通勤者的情况。本研究的新颖之处在于，在聚合区级上分析了通勤流的整体结构，包括方向。除了其他专门研究劳动力市场经济学的论文，主要关注个人数据和选定的决定因素，我们调查了广泛的可能因素，并得出结论，决定通勤流动强度和方向的主要宏观经济因素:人口、失业率、住房租赁成本和每10000人的公司数量。我们还发现，同一土地区域之间的通勤流量比不同土地区域之间的通勤流量高202%，相邻区域之间的通勤流量比没有共同边界的区域之间的通勤流量高414.5%。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Applied Econometrics Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)

CiteScore

0.70

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Applied Econometrics is an international journal published bi-monthly, plus 1 additional issue (total 7 issues). It aims to publish articles of high quality dealing with the application of existing as well as new econometric techniques to a wide variety of problems in economics and related subjects, covering topics in measurement, estimation, testing, forecasting, and policy analysis. The emphasis is on the careful and rigorous application of econometric techniques and the appropriate interpretation of the results. The economic content of the articles is stressed. A special feature of the Journal is its emphasis on the replicability of results by other researchers. To achieve this aim, authors are expected to make available a complete set of the data used as well as any specialised computer programs employed through a readily accessible medium, preferably in a machine-readable form. The use of microcomputers in applied research and transferability of data is emphasised. The Journal also features occasional sections of short papers re-evaluating previously published papers. The intention of the Journal of Applied Econometrics is to provide an outlet for innovative, quantitative research in economics which cuts across areas of specialisation, involves transferable techniques, and is easily replicable by other researchers. Contributions that introduce statistical methods that are applicable to a variety of economic problems are actively encouraged. The Journal also aims to publish review and survey articles that make recent developments in the field of theoretical and applied econometrics more readily accessible to applied economists in general.