Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.22394/1993-7601-2023-69-65-90
E. Kossova, Mariia Kosorukova
The paper presents a comparative analysis of the multivariate recursive probit model and matching as the methods for estimating the treatment effect of higher education on binary indicators of individuals’ health. Statistical evidence has been obtained in favor of the presence of a negative treatment effect of higher education on the probability of a woman suffering from hypertension and obesity and a man assessing his health as very good, as well as a positive effect on the probability of a woman having eye diseases and allergy. It is concluded that it is necessary to estimate the treatment effect in applied research simultaneously by different methods to obtain robust estimates.
{"title":"Estimation of the treatment effect of higher education on health: Comparison of the multivariate recursive probit model and matching","authors":"E. Kossova, Mariia Kosorukova","doi":"10.22394/1993-7601-2023-69-65-90","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22394/1993-7601-2023-69-65-90","url":null,"abstract":"The paper presents a comparative analysis of the multivariate recursive probit model and matching as the methods for estimating the treatment effect of higher education on binary indicators of individuals’ health. Statistical evidence has been obtained in favor of the presence of a negative treatment effect of higher education on the probability of a woman suffering from hypertension and obesity and a man assessing his health as very good, as well as a positive effect on the probability of a woman having eye diseases and allergy. It is concluded that it is necessary to estimate the treatment effect in applied research simultaneously by different methods to obtain robust estimates.","PeriodicalId":8045,"journal":{"name":"Applied Econometrics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68418999","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.22394/1993-7601-2023-71-99-127
Anastasiia Piliuk, Elena Semerikova, Andreas Nastansky
The paper studies commuting flows between German regions. Using panel data of 400 German regions from 2013 to 2019 we evaluate the effect of the wide range of indicators determining the magnitude of the commuting flows: demographic factors, indicators of the labour and real estate markets, welfare variables, social and educational system characteristics, etc. We employ the gravity model analysis with Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood, allowing us to consider even the absence of commuters between regions. The novelty of the research is that the full structure of commuting flows, including the direction, is analyzed at the aggregated district level. In addition to other papers devoted to the economics of the labor market and focused mostly on individual data and selected determinants, we investigate a wide range of possible factors and conclude that the main macroeconomic factors determining both the intensity and direction of commuting flows: population, unemployment rate, cost of leasing housing and the number of companies per 10000 people. We also find that commuting flows between regions in the same land are 202% higher than between regions from different lands, and commuting flows between neighbouring regions are 414.5% higher than between regions without a common border.
{"title":"Determinants of commuting flows in Germany","authors":"Anastasiia Piliuk, Elena Semerikova, Andreas Nastansky","doi":"10.22394/1993-7601-2023-71-99-127","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22394/1993-7601-2023-71-99-127","url":null,"abstract":"The paper studies commuting flows between German regions. Using panel data of 400 German regions from 2013 to 2019 we evaluate the effect of the wide range of indicators determining the magnitude of the commuting flows: demographic factors, indicators of the labour and real estate markets, welfare variables, social and educational system characteristics, etc. We employ the gravity model analysis with Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood, allowing us to consider even the absence of commuters between regions. The novelty of the research is that the full structure of commuting flows, including the direction, is analyzed at the aggregated district level. In addition to other papers devoted to the economics of the labor market and focused mostly on individual data and selected determinants, we investigate a wide range of possible factors and conclude that the main macroeconomic factors determining both the intensity and direction of commuting flows: population, unemployment rate, cost of leasing housing and the number of companies per 10000 people. We also find that commuting flows between regions in the same land are 202% higher than between regions from different lands, and commuting flows between neighbouring regions are 414.5% higher than between regions without a common border.","PeriodicalId":8045,"journal":{"name":"Applied Econometrics","volume":"103 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135500826","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.22394/1993-7601-2023-71-76-98
Evgeniy Zazdravnykh, Tatiana Rodionova, Elena Taraskina, Farida Garipova
This paper attempts to assess the effect of work stress, physical occupational hazards, smoking, alcohol consumption, and low physical activity on the health of Russia’s employed population. For this, a multivariate probit model is used, which makes it possible to reduce the effect of unobserved heterogeneity. The results demonstrate that univariate probit models may underestimate occupational factors and overestimate lifestyle determinants.
{"title":"The effects of occupational hazards and health-related behavior on workers’ health: A multivariate probit approach","authors":"Evgeniy Zazdravnykh, Tatiana Rodionova, Elena Taraskina, Farida Garipova","doi":"10.22394/1993-7601-2023-71-76-98","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22394/1993-7601-2023-71-76-98","url":null,"abstract":"This paper attempts to assess the effect of work stress, physical occupational hazards, smoking, alcohol consumption, and low physical activity on the health of Russia’s employed population. For this, a multivariate probit model is used, which makes it possible to reduce the effect of unobserved heterogeneity. The results demonstrate that univariate probit models may underestimate occupational factors and overestimate lifestyle determinants.","PeriodicalId":8045,"journal":{"name":"Applied Econometrics","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135502357","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.22394/1993-7601-2023-72-100-120
Anna Maigur
The paper estimates hazard risk models to find the determinants of the unemployment duration based on data from Russian employment centres for 2017–2021. Models with homogeneous and heterogeneous parameters by regions are built. It has been demonstrated that single parents and people with higher level of education need less time to find a job while pre-retirement age people need more. A high regional heterogeneity is revealed for both intercept and some coefficients’slope.
{"title":"Regional analysis of registered unemployment duration","authors":"Anna Maigur","doi":"10.22394/1993-7601-2023-72-100-120","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22394/1993-7601-2023-72-100-120","url":null,"abstract":"The paper estimates hazard risk models to find the determinants of the unemployment duration based on data from Russian employment centres for 2017–2021. Models with homogeneous and heterogeneous parameters by regions are built. It has been demonstrated that single parents and people with higher level of education need less time to find a job while pre-retirement age people need more. A high regional heterogeneity is revealed for both intercept and some coefficients’slope.","PeriodicalId":8045,"journal":{"name":"Applied Econometrics","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135446970","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.22394/1993-7601-2023-70-89-108
Timur Magzhanov, Anna Sagradyan
This paper evaluates the change in the contribution of factors to the probability of students’ success at the All‐Russian Olympiad in economics during the COVID‐19 pandemic using classical econometric models and binary quantile regression (BQR). No works were found in the Russian literature where BQR would be applied. However, in our opinion, it has great potential both for studying the effects’ heterogeneity and for solving probability prediction problems. Empirical results show that the contribution of school rating to success at the municipal stage decreased in the 2020/21 season compared to the 2019/20 season. High score at the municipal stage (winner status) became a weaker predictor of success at the regional stage in the 2020/21 season compared to the 2019/20 season. The reason for this change may lie in a decrease in the tasks’ complexity (due to a change in their structure), a higher opportunity for cheating (due to weak and non‐mandatory proctoring) or both.
{"title":"Ambiguous high scores: The All-Russian Olympiad in economics during the COVID-19 pandemic","authors":"Timur Magzhanov, Anna Sagradyan","doi":"10.22394/1993-7601-2023-70-89-108","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22394/1993-7601-2023-70-89-108","url":null,"abstract":"This paper evaluates the change in the contribution of factors to the probability of students’ success at the All‐Russian Olympiad in economics during the COVID‐19 pandemic using classical econometric models and binary quantile regression (BQR). No works were found in the Russian literature where BQR would be applied. However, in our opinion, it has great potential both for studying the effects’ heterogeneity and for solving probability prediction problems. Empirical results show that the contribution of school rating to success at the municipal stage decreased in the 2020/21 season compared to the 2019/20 season. High score at the municipal stage (winner status) became a weaker predictor of success at the regional stage in the 2020/21 season compared to the 2019/20 season. The reason for this change may lie in a decrease in the tasks’ complexity (due to a change in their structure), a higher opportunity for cheating (due to weak and non‐mandatory proctoring) or both.","PeriodicalId":8045,"journal":{"name":"Applied Econometrics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68419532","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.22394/1993-7601-2023-70-55-71
E. Kotyrlo
The influence of female employment on fertility has been widely studied. However, there is a gap in the knowledge of the effect of daily labor mobility on fertility. The paper presents the study of the direct and indirect effects of commuting on the timing of entry into motherhood by comparison the age‐specific first‐birth rates of female commuters and non‐commuters. The effects appear in simultaneous decision making on childbearing and com‐ muting, and effects of cross‐municipal flows of population and earnings, and fertility norms diffusion on childbearing. Estimation strategy addresses the problem of potential endogeneity of commuting decision. The study uses individual register data from Sweden for women born in 1974 and residing in the Stockholm area following them from 19 to 32 years old. Results demonstrate that commuting women postpone their first birth. Commuters’ first‐birth rates are more sensitive to the changes in relative earnings, fertility norms, and the proportion of commuters in the residing population. Swedish family and labor policies significantly improve reconciliation of family and working life in comparison with many European countries. However, the study demonstrates that the policies do not address commuting costs (in a general meaning) in childbearing decision. The results can be used to explain the link between fertility and daily labor mobility in high‐income countries with a high proportion of women involved in daily labor mobility.
{"title":"Daily labor mobility and the timing of entry into motherhood","authors":"E. Kotyrlo","doi":"10.22394/1993-7601-2023-70-55-71","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22394/1993-7601-2023-70-55-71","url":null,"abstract":"The influence of female employment on fertility has been widely studied. However, there is a gap in the knowledge of the effect of daily labor mobility on fertility. The paper presents the study of the direct and indirect effects of commuting on the timing of entry into motherhood by comparison the age‐specific first‐birth rates of female commuters and non‐commuters. The effects appear in simultaneous decision making on childbearing and com‐ muting, and effects of cross‐municipal flows of population and earnings, and fertility norms diffusion on childbearing. Estimation strategy addresses the problem of potential endogeneity of commuting decision. The study uses individual register data from Sweden for women born in 1974 and residing in the Stockholm area following them from 19 to 32 years old. Results demonstrate that commuting women postpone their first birth. Commuters’ first‐birth rates are more sensitive to the changes in relative earnings, fertility norms, and the proportion of commuters in the residing population. Swedish family and labor policies significantly improve reconciliation of family and working life in comparison with many European countries. However, the study demonstrates that the policies do not address commuting costs (in a general meaning) in childbearing decision. The results can be used to explain the link between fertility and daily labor mobility in high‐income countries with a high proportion of women involved in daily labor mobility.","PeriodicalId":8045,"journal":{"name":"Applied Econometrics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68419447","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper aims at assessing the effects of terrorism on a range of female health outcomes in 20 sub‐Saharan African countries between 2002 and 2018. A causality test is implemented to find out if terrorism causes a deterioration in female health outcomes. Additionally, regression analysis is used to assess the impact of terrorism on female health outcomes after con‐ trolling for female education, seats held by women in parliament, average income, military expenditure, political stability, and the incidence of malaria. The causality analysis shows that terrorism is directly altering female health through its impact on mortality outcomes while its impact on the other dimensions of female health is indirect or uncertain. The regression analysis reveals that terrorism has a positive, significant, and robust impact on the lifetime risk of maternal death and the maternal mortality ratio meanwhile its effects on the fertility rate, the proportion of women living with HIV, and life expectancy are not significant. The findings suggest that African governments could improve female health outcomes by altering the root causes of terrorism with policies promoting the rule of law, ethnic and religious diversity, inclusive political dialogue, checks and balances, and strong political institutions.
{"title":"Assessing the effects of terrorism on female health outcomes: Evidence from sub-Saharan African countries","authors":"Achille Dargaud Fofack, Gbolahan Olowu, Olakunle Olusola Sarumi","doi":"10.22394/1993-7601-2023-71-63-75","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22394/1993-7601-2023-71-63-75","url":null,"abstract":"This paper aims at assessing the effects of terrorism on a range of female health outcomes in 20 sub‐Saharan African countries between 2002 and 2018. A causality test is implemented to find out if terrorism causes a deterioration in female health outcomes. Additionally, regression analysis is used to assess the impact of terrorism on female health outcomes after con‐ trolling for female education, seats held by women in parliament, average income, military expenditure, political stability, and the incidence of malaria. The causality analysis shows that terrorism is directly altering female health through its impact on mortality outcomes while its impact on the other dimensions of female health is indirect or uncertain. The regression analysis reveals that terrorism has a positive, significant, and robust impact on the lifetime risk of maternal death and the maternal mortality ratio meanwhile its effects on the fertility rate, the proportion of women living with HIV, and life expectancy are not significant. The findings suggest that African governments could improve female health outcomes by altering the root causes of terrorism with policies promoting the rule of law, ethnic and religious diversity, inclusive political dialogue, checks and balances, and strong political institutions.","PeriodicalId":8045,"journal":{"name":"Applied Econometrics","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135500821","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.22394/1993-7601-2023-71-128-142
Ilya Nikolskiy, Kirill Furmanov
A technique for assessing the concordance between true inefficiency of decision making units in a basic stochastic frontier model and their JLMS estimates is proposed. An approximate formula for Harrell’s C‐index is derived for the case of half‐normal distribution of inefficiency component. A simulation study shows that the approximation error is about 0.01 and that finite‐sample values of Harrell’s C are lower than asymptotic values. Hence, the approximate formula may be considered as an upper bound for the ranking accuracy of the stochastic frontier model.
{"title":"Assessing the accuracy of efficiency rankings obtained from a stochastic frontier model","authors":"Ilya Nikolskiy, Kirill Furmanov","doi":"10.22394/1993-7601-2023-71-128-142","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22394/1993-7601-2023-71-128-142","url":null,"abstract":"A technique for assessing the concordance between true inefficiency of decision making units in a basic stochastic frontier model and their JLMS estimates is proposed. An approximate formula for Harrell’s C‐index is derived for the case of half‐normal distribution of inefficiency component. A simulation study shows that the approximation error is about 0.01 and that finite‐sample values of Harrell’s C are lower than asymptotic values. Hence, the approximate formula may be considered as an upper bound for the ranking accuracy of the stochastic frontier model.","PeriodicalId":8045,"journal":{"name":"Applied Econometrics","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135502383","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.22394/1993-7601-2023-69-28-47
M. Kolosnitsyna, Varvara Sukhanova
Price elasticity is an important indicator of alcohol consumption. The success of an alcohol policy largely depends on how sensitive the demand is to the price. The purpose of this paper is to determine the effect of vodka price changes on the amount of vodka and pure alcohol consumed by Russian citizens exploiting the variation caused by price regulations, and in particular, taxation. Demand for alcohol is sensitive to its price, as abundant research has shown. However, the price of alcohol, in turn, may depend on demand. To overcome the endogeneity, we used a sharp change in excise tax observed in Russia in 2011 to model the price of vodka using the regression kink design. Based on nationally representative households and individual survey data, we also used the Arellano–Bond method to take into account habit formation. Our results are close to those obtained in other countries but differ from price elasticity values calculated in some work based on Russian data. The results confirm the effectiveness of the tax policy in those years when it increased the real prices of alcohol.
{"title":"Price elasticities revisited: The effect of price changes caused by taxation on the amount of alcohol consumed","authors":"M. Kolosnitsyna, Varvara Sukhanova","doi":"10.22394/1993-7601-2023-69-28-47","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22394/1993-7601-2023-69-28-47","url":null,"abstract":"Price elasticity is an important indicator of alcohol consumption. The success of an alcohol policy largely depends on how sensitive the demand is to the price. The purpose of this paper is to determine the effect of vodka price changes on the amount of vodka and pure alcohol consumed by Russian citizens exploiting the variation caused by price regulations, and in particular, taxation. Demand for alcohol is sensitive to its price, as abundant research has shown. However, the price of alcohol, in turn, may depend on demand. To overcome the endogeneity, we used a sharp change in excise tax observed in Russia in 2011 to model the price of vodka using the regression kink design. Based on nationally representative households and individual survey data, we also used the Arellano–Bond method to take into account habit formation. Our results are close to those obtained in other countries but differ from price elasticity values calculated in some work based on Russian data. The results confirm the effectiveness of the tax policy in those years when it increased the real prices of alcohol.","PeriodicalId":8045,"journal":{"name":"Applied Econometrics","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68418765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.22394/1993-7601-2023-71-39-62
Marina Kartseva
The paper assesses the relationship between children’s health and household income in Russia. The empirical basis of the study is the microdata of waves 9–28 of the HSE RLMS (2000–2019). The analysis is carried out both for children in general and for separate age groups. We use the technique proposed in (Case et al., 2002) and widely used in the literature. Unlike many developed countries, a significant relationship between children’s health and household income was not revealed for Russia. The health status of children is not statistically related to either current or retrospective or average family incomes.
本文评估了俄罗斯儿童健康与家庭收入之间的关系。本研究的经验基础是HSE RLMS(2000-2019) 9-28波的微观数据。这项分析是针对一般儿童和不同年龄组的儿童进行的。我们使用(Case et al.， 2002)中提出并在文献中广泛使用的技术。与许多发达国家不同，俄罗斯没有发现儿童健康与家庭收入之间的重要关系。儿童的健康状况在统计上与当前或过去或平均家庭收入都没有关系。
{"title":"Income gradient in children’s health in Russia: An empirical analysis","authors":"Marina Kartseva","doi":"10.22394/1993-7601-2023-71-39-62","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22394/1993-7601-2023-71-39-62","url":null,"abstract":"The paper assesses the relationship between children’s health and household income in Russia. The empirical basis of the study is the microdata of waves 9–28 of the HSE RLMS (2000–2019). The analysis is carried out both for children in general and for separate age groups. We use the technique proposed in (Case et al., 2002) and widely used in the literature. Unlike many developed countries, a significant relationship between children’s health and household income was not revealed for Russia. The health status of children is not statistically related to either current or retrospective or average family incomes.","PeriodicalId":8045,"journal":{"name":"Applied Econometrics","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135502396","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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