Authorities’ Fiscal Forecasts in Latin America: Are they Optimistic?

Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, Luca Antonio Ricci, Alejandro Mariano Werner, Rene Zamarripa
{"title":"Authorities’ Fiscal Forecasts in Latin America: Are they Optimistic?","authors":"Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, Luca Antonio Ricci, Alejandro Mariano Werner, Rene Zamarripa","doi":"10.31389/eco.416","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Do governments in Latin America tend to be optimistic when preparing budgetary projections? We address this question by constructing a novel dataset of the authorities’ fiscal forecasts in six Latin American economies, using data from annual budget documents over the period 2000–2018. We compare such forecasts with the outturns reported in the corresponding budget documents of the following years, to understand the evolution of fiscal forecast errors. Our findings suggest that: (i) there is no general optimistic bias in the forecasts for the fiscal balance-to-GDP ratio; (ii) over time, fiscal forecasts have improved for some countries and worsened for others; (iii) forecast errors for the fiscal balance-to-GDP ratio are positively correlated with GDP growth and terms-of-trade changes, and negatively correlated with GDP deflator surprises; (iv) forecast errors for public debt-to-GDP ratios are negatively associated with surprises to GDP growth; and (v), budget balance rules may help contain fiscal forecast errors. JEL Classification Codes: E6, H50","PeriodicalId":44815,"journal":{"name":"Economia-Journal of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2000,"publicationDate":"2023-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Economia-Journal of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.31389/eco.416","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

Do governments in Latin America tend to be optimistic when preparing budgetary projections? We address this question by constructing a novel dataset of the authorities’ fiscal forecasts in six Latin American economies, using data from annual budget documents over the period 2000–2018. We compare such forecasts with the outturns reported in the corresponding budget documents of the following years, to understand the evolution of fiscal forecast errors. Our findings suggest that: (i) there is no general optimistic bias in the forecasts for the fiscal balance-to-GDP ratio; (ii) over time, fiscal forecasts have improved for some countries and worsened for others; (iii) forecast errors for the fiscal balance-to-GDP ratio are positively correlated with GDP growth and terms-of-trade changes, and negatively correlated with GDP deflator surprises; (iv) forecast errors for public debt-to-GDP ratios are negatively associated with surprises to GDP growth; and (v), budget balance rules may help contain fiscal forecast errors. JEL Classification Codes: E6, H50
查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
Authorities&,拉丁美洲的财政预测是否乐观?
拉美各国政府在编制预算预测时是否倾向于乐观?我们利用2000年至2018年期间的年度预算文件数据,构建了六个拉丁美洲经济体政府财政预测的新数据集,以此解决了这个问题。我们将这些预测与随后几年相应预算文件中报告的结果进行比较,以了解财政预测误差的演变。我们的研究结果表明:(1)财政收支与gdp之比的预测不存在普遍的乐观偏见;(ii)随着时间的推移,一些国家的财政预测有所改善,而另一些国家则有所恶化;(iii)财政收支与GDP比率的预测误差与GDP增长和贸易条件变化呈正相关,与GDP平减指数意外负相关;(iv)公共债务与GDP比率的预测误差与GDP增长的意外值呈负相关;(五)预算平衡规则可能有助于遏制财政预测错误。JEL分类代码:E6, H50
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 去求助
来源期刊
CiteScore
0.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
审稿时长
24 weeks
期刊最新文献
Inequality and Crime in Latin America and the Caribbean: New Data for an Old Question The Scars of Civil War: The Long-Term Welfare Effects of the Salvadoran Armed Conflict The Yield Spread as a Predictor of Economic Activity in Mexico: The Role of the Term Premium Authorities’ Fiscal Forecasts in Latin America: Are they Optimistic? Do Bigger Legislatures Lead to Bigger Government? Evidence from a Brazilian Municipal Council Reform
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1