The purpose of this paper is to revisit the relationship between inequality and crime, with a focus on the Latin America and Caribbean region. We find a significant, positive, and robust association between these variables. Moreover, inequality is the only variable showing this robust regularity. Education levels, economic activity, income per capita, and poverty show weaker and unstable relationships with crime. With due caution, the use of historical variables to instrument for inequality in crime regressions suggests that a causal interpretation of this relationship is plausible. In addition, the analysis of the distribution of crime victimization indicates that men suffer more crime than women, and that the male-to-female homicide ratio grows with inequality. By socio-economic strata, high-income groups suffer more victimization relative to poorer groups in LAC countries, but the poor suffer more homicides. JEL Classification Codes: D63; K42; O15; O54
{"title":"Inequality and Crime in Latin America and the Caribbean: New Data for an Old Question","authors":"Ernesto Schargrodsky, Lucia Freira","doi":"10.31389/eco.413","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31389/eco.413","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this paper is to revisit the relationship between inequality and crime, with a focus on the Latin America and Caribbean region. We find a significant, positive, and robust association between these variables. Moreover, inequality is the only variable showing this robust regularity. Education levels, economic activity, income per capita, and poverty show weaker and unstable relationships with crime. With due caution, the use of historical variables to instrument for inequality in crime regressions suggests that a causal interpretation of this relationship is plausible. In addition, the analysis of the distribution of crime victimization indicates that men suffer more crime than women, and that the male-to-female homicide ratio grows with inequality. By socio-economic strata, high-income groups suffer more victimization relative to poorer groups in LAC countries, but the poor suffer more homicides. JEL Classification Codes: D63; K42; O15; O54","PeriodicalId":44815,"journal":{"name":"Economia-Journal of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135390253","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pablo Acosta, Javier E. Baez, Germán Caruso, Carlos Carcach
This paper estimates the long-term effects on human capital accumulation and subsequent labor market outcomes of in utero and early childhood exposure to the civil war in El Salvador (1980–92), the second longest and deadliest civil conflict in Central America. Identification is obtained from spatial and intertemporal variation in the intensity of the conflict drawn from historical archive data comprising records of human casualties, disappearances, and refugees. The results show that people born in highly violent areas during the civil war saw a reduction in their probability of being employed by 6 percentage points, and of getting a high-skilled job by 5 percentage points, 20 to 30 years hence. The civil war also reduced their education by 0.8 year, as well as their enrollment and literacy rates. Subgroup analysis indicates that exposed males and indigenous groups experienced the largest losses in human capital and had weaker performance in the labor market. JEL Classification Codes: D31, I00, J13
{"title":"The Scars of Civil War: The Long-Term Welfare Effects of the Salvadoran Armed Conflict","authors":"Pablo Acosta, Javier E. Baez, Germán Caruso, Carlos Carcach","doi":"10.31389/eco.414","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31389/eco.414","url":null,"abstract":"This paper estimates the long-term effects on human capital accumulation and subsequent labor market outcomes of in utero and early childhood exposure to the civil war in El Salvador (1980–92), the second longest and deadliest civil conflict in Central America. Identification is obtained from spatial and intertemporal variation in the intensity of the conflict drawn from historical archive data comprising records of human casualties, disappearances, and refugees. The results show that people born in highly violent areas during the civil war saw a reduction in their probability of being employed by 6 percentage points, and of getting a high-skilled job by 5 percentage points, 20 to 30 years hence. The civil war also reduced their education by 0.8 year, as well as their enrollment and literacy rates. Subgroup analysis indicates that exposed males and indigenous groups experienced the largest losses in human capital and had weaker performance in the labor market. JEL Classification Codes: D31, I00, J13","PeriodicalId":44815,"journal":{"name":"Economia-Journal of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135390745","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper analyzes whether there exists a relationship between the slope of the yield curve and future economic activity in Mexico for the period 2004–2019. In particular, we evaluate whether such a relationship depends on the term premium. For this purpose, we estimate a threshold model in which the relationship between the yield spread and economic activity, measured as either output growth or the probability of a contraction, depends on whether the term premium is above or below a certain threshold. The main results indicate that the slope of the yield curve seems to anticipate the behavior of economic activity only when the term premium is above a threshold. Our results also suggest that the slope of the yield curve has predictive power over the probability of facing a contraction in the future only when the term premium is above a threshold. JEL Classification Codes: C53, E32, E37, E43
{"title":"The Yield Spread as a Predictor of Economic Activity in Mexico: The Role of the Term Premium","authors":"Raul Ibarra","doi":"10.31389/eco.415","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31389/eco.415","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyzes whether there exists a relationship between the slope of the yield curve and future economic activity in Mexico for the period 2004–2019. In particular, we evaluate whether such a relationship depends on the term premium. For this purpose, we estimate a threshold model in which the relationship between the yield spread and economic activity, measured as either output growth or the probability of a contraction, depends on whether the term premium is above or below a certain threshold. The main results indicate that the slope of the yield curve seems to anticipate the behavior of economic activity only when the term premium is above a threshold. Our results also suggest that the slope of the yield curve has predictive power over the probability of facing a contraction in the future only when the term premium is above a threshold. JEL Classification Codes: C53, E32, E37, E43","PeriodicalId":44815,"journal":{"name":"Economia-Journal of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135480736","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, Luca Antonio Ricci, Alejandro Mariano Werner, Rene Zamarripa
Do governments in Latin America tend to be optimistic when preparing budgetary projections? We address this question by constructing a novel dataset of the authorities’ fiscal forecasts in six Latin American economies, using data from annual budget documents over the period 2000–2018. We compare such forecasts with the outturns reported in the corresponding budget documents of the following years, to understand the evolution of fiscal forecast errors. Our findings suggest that: (i) there is no general optimistic bias in the forecasts for the fiscal balance-to-GDP ratio; (ii) over time, fiscal forecasts have improved for some countries and worsened for others; (iii) forecast errors for the fiscal balance-to-GDP ratio are positively correlated with GDP growth and terms-of-trade changes, and negatively correlated with GDP deflator surprises; (iv) forecast errors for public debt-to-GDP ratios are negatively associated with surprises to GDP growth; and (v), budget balance rules may help contain fiscal forecast errors. JEL Classification Codes: E6, H50
{"title":"Authorities’ Fiscal Forecasts in Latin America: Are they Optimistic?","authors":"Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, Luca Antonio Ricci, Alejandro Mariano Werner, Rene Zamarripa","doi":"10.31389/eco.416","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31389/eco.416","url":null,"abstract":"Do governments in Latin America tend to be optimistic when preparing budgetary projections? We address this question by constructing a novel dataset of the authorities’ fiscal forecasts in six Latin American economies, using data from annual budget documents over the period 2000–2018. We compare such forecasts with the outturns reported in the corresponding budget documents of the following years, to understand the evolution of fiscal forecast errors. Our findings suggest that: (i) there is no general optimistic bias in the forecasts for the fiscal balance-to-GDP ratio; (ii) over time, fiscal forecasts have improved for some countries and worsened for others; (iii) forecast errors for the fiscal balance-to-GDP ratio are positively correlated with GDP growth and terms-of-trade changes, and negatively correlated with GDP deflator surprises; (iv) forecast errors for public debt-to-GDP ratios are negatively associated with surprises to GDP growth; and (v), budget balance rules may help contain fiscal forecast errors. JEL Classification Codes: E6, H50","PeriodicalId":44815,"journal":{"name":"Economia-Journal of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135645078","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Do bigger legislatures lead to bigger government? We exploit a Brazilian reform that allocated the number of municipal council seats based on population thresholds in a regression discontinuity design. We find that larger councils have significantly higher public expenditures on social goods and legislative costs. Increased spending is partly financed by significantly higher local tax revenues and is driven by a less salient form of tax to voters – on services – than property taxes. As a potential explanation for our findings, we show that, more council seats led to greater political diversity. JEL Classification Codes: D72, H72, R51
{"title":"Do Bigger Legislatures Lead to Bigger Government? Evidence from a Brazilian Municipal Council Reform","authors":"Rodrigo Schneider, Henrique Veras","doi":"10.31389/eco.417","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31389/eco.417","url":null,"abstract":"Do bigger legislatures lead to bigger government? We exploit a Brazilian reform that allocated the number of municipal council seats based on population thresholds in a regression discontinuity design. We find that larger councils have significantly higher public expenditures on social goods and legislative costs. Increased spending is partly financed by significantly higher local tax revenues and is driven by a less salient form of tax to voters – on services – than property taxes. As a potential explanation for our findings, we show that, more council seats led to greater political diversity. JEL Classification Codes: D72, H72, R51","PeriodicalId":44815,"journal":{"name":"Economia-Journal of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135199380","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We use skills surveys from 53 countries to estimate jobs’ amenability to working from home (WFH). Our measure combines data on self-reported jobs’ characteristics and home internet access into a standardized measure. We find that jobs’ amenability to WFH increases with economic development. Women, college graduates, and salaried and formal workers have jobs that are more amenable to WFH than the average. The opposite holds for workers in hotels and restaurants, construction, agriculture, and commerce. We validate our measure using longitudinal data from Chile and showing that WFH amenability correlates negatively with job losses between 2019 and 2020 and positively with the observed share of workers who worked from home in 2020. Finally, occupations explain less than one third of the variability in the WFH measure and its components, highlighting the importance of using individual-level data to assess jobs’ amenability to WFH. JEL Classification Codes: J22; J61; O30
{"title":"Jobs’ Amenability to Working from Home: Evidence from Skills Surveys for 53 Countries","authors":"Maho Hatayama, Mariana Viollaz, Hernan Winkler","doi":"10.31389/eco.8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31389/eco.8","url":null,"abstract":"We use skills surveys from 53 countries to estimate jobs’ amenability to working from home (WFH). Our measure combines data on self-reported jobs’ characteristics and home internet access into a standardized measure. We find that jobs’ amenability to WFH increases with economic development. Women, college graduates, and salaried and formal workers have jobs that are more amenable to WFH than the average. The opposite holds for workers in hotels and restaurants, construction, agriculture, and commerce. We validate our measure using longitudinal data from Chile and showing that WFH amenability correlates negatively with job losses between 2019 and 2020 and positively with the observed share of workers who worked from home in 2020. Finally, occupations explain less than one third of the variability in the WFH measure and its components, highlighting the importance of using individual-level data to assess jobs’ amenability to WFH. JEL Classification Codes: J22; J61; O30","PeriodicalId":44815,"journal":{"name":"Economia-Journal of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134945925","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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