The Effects of Developments in Financial Markets and Currency-Protected Deposit System on Financial Deepening: The Case of Turkey

Abstract

In this study, the effects of credit volume, stock market trading volume and currency protected deposit (CPD) system on financial deepening (M2/M1) of the Turkish economy for the period 2010M1:2023M2 (T=158) are analyzed by Structural VAR (SVAR) method. According to the findings, credit volume shocks have a significant effect while the effect of stock market trading volume is limited. In advanced financial systems, the M2/M1 ratio hovers between 4 and 6. The financial deepening ratio, which was measured as 4.86 at the beginning of the analyzed period, was at its lowest level of 2.41 in 2021M12 when the CPD system was announced. After the implementation of the CPD system, the financial deepening ratio improved slightly to 2.67. At the same time, the existence of structural change before and after the CPD system is found to be significant according to the Chow test. On the other hand, when the developments in financial markets are analyzed, the significant increase in credit volume was not reflected positively on financial deepening. The inflationary process in recent years has had a significant impact on this process. In conclusion, inflationary expectations and the increase in asset purchases are the main factors behind the decline in financial deepening in the Turkish economy. Although the CPD system has been reasonably successful, rationally based policies are needed to replace this practice, which is expected to be temporary, as well as to strengthen financial deepening.