Impact of Climate and Land Use/Cover Changes on Streamflow in Yadot Watershed, Genale Dawa Basin, Ethiopia

Abstract

Climate and land use/cover (LULC) changes are essential factors that influence hydrological regimes by altering the groundwater recharge and river flow. This study investigated the separate and combined impact of climate and LULC changes on streamflow. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate streamflow under near-term (2021–2050) and mid-term (2051–2080) period against 1985 to 2015 baseline period. The Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov chain model was used to predict the future LULC change. The three-ensemble average of regional climate models (CCLM4.8, RACMO22T, EC-EARTH) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios were applied for future climate projection. The LULC predictions between 2035 and 2055 showed an increase in agricultural land, grassland, settlement areas and woodlands by 44.02%, 30.35%, 69.2%, and 55.05%, respectively, while forest and scrub/bush lands showed a decrease by decrease by 21.53% and 11.08%, respectively. The annual, wet, and dry seasons rainfall projections increased by 0.13%, 0.02%, and 0.85% respectively, during the near term period under RCP 4.5 scenarios. Overall, the annual, wet, and dry season rainfall projections showed slightly increasing tendency. The temperature projection consistently indicated a warmer future with the highest mean annual projected temperature being 2.0°C under high emission scenario during the midterm period. The projected streamflow under the combined impact of climate and LULC changes will increase by up to 8.72% in wet seasons and by up to 6.62% in dry seasons during the near-term period under RCP4.5 scenarios. Similarly, the projected mean annual streamflow will increase by up to 8.13%. The annual, wet and dry season’s streamflow projections showed a consistent increase during both near and midterm periods under both climate scenarios. Understanding the future response of streamflow under climate and LULC changes is crucial to plan adaptation options for water resources management under future warming condition.