{"title":"Bringing Household Finance Back In: House Prices and the Missing Macroeconomics of Comparative Political Economy","authors":"James D. G. Wood, Engelbert Stockhammer","doi":"10.1177/00323292231201480","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This article makes a key contribution to the comparative political economy literature by accounting for the macroeconomic role of household finance. Based on post-Keynesian theories of finance and the financialization literature, we place house prices and mortgage credit squarely at the center of the macroeconomy, as speculative house price cycles can facilitate homeowner consumption via the use of equity release mortgages. Through an econometric evaluation of eighteen advanced economies from 1980 to 2019, we demonstrate that household debt is determined by house price inflation, and that rising household debt contributes to GDP growth, while business debt has negative growth effects. These results are consistent across countries with different growth models and financial systems. This suggests that the varieties of capitalism's focus on corporate finance is misplaced and that the growth models approach needs a theory of house prices, mortgage credit, and financial cycles to adequately conceptualize how debt-driven growth operates across advanced economies.","PeriodicalId":47847,"journal":{"name":"Politics & Society","volume":"6 7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1000,"publicationDate":"2023-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Politics & Society","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00323292231201480","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"POLITICAL SCIENCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This article makes a key contribution to the comparative political economy literature by accounting for the macroeconomic role of household finance. Based on post-Keynesian theories of finance and the financialization literature, we place house prices and mortgage credit squarely at the center of the macroeconomy, as speculative house price cycles can facilitate homeowner consumption via the use of equity release mortgages. Through an econometric evaluation of eighteen advanced economies from 1980 to 2019, we demonstrate that household debt is determined by house price inflation, and that rising household debt contributes to GDP growth, while business debt has negative growth effects. These results are consistent across countries with different growth models and financial systems. This suggests that the varieties of capitalism's focus on corporate finance is misplaced and that the growth models approach needs a theory of house prices, mortgage credit, and financial cycles to adequately conceptualize how debt-driven growth operates across advanced economies.
期刊介绍:
Politics & Society is a peer-reviewed journal. All submitted papers are read by a rotating editorial board member. If a paper is deemed potentially publishable, it is sent to another board member, who, if agreeing that it is potentially publishable, sends it to a third board member. If and only if all three agree, the paper is sent to the entire editorial board for consideration at board meetings. The editorial board meets three times a year, and the board members who are present (usually between 9 and 14) make decisions through a deliberative process that also considers written reports from absent members. Unlike many journals which rely on 1–3 individual blind referee reports and a single editor with final say, the peers who decide whether to accept submitted work are thus the full editorial board of the journal, comprised of scholars from various disciplines, who discuss papers openly, with author names known, at meetings. Editors are required to disclose potential conflicts of interest when evaluating manuscripts and to recuse themselves from voting if such a potential exists.