Long-Term Copper Production to 2100

Abstract

Exponentially increasing amounts of copper mined over the last 120 years and Cu’s central place in modern society raise concerns about its long-term availability. Estimates of copper production from mines made here based on projected population (R² = 0.95) are lower than many previous studies. Projected world production of copper from mines in 2100 of 28.2 million tons Cu is approximately 34% more than 2021 production. Rough estimates of recycled Cu added to mine production are less than previous estimates of future consumed Cu. Although annual mined copper will peak in about 2086, production will continue in a gentle decline through 2100. Future availability of consumed copper is dependent on availability of mined copper plus recycled copper. Estimated total copper demand including new technologies is 33 million tons in 2040. Total expected copper from mines estimated here is 24 million tons in 2040, but with a recycling rate of 30%, required demand of 33 million tons would be satisfied. Per capita GDP effects on copper consumption require a logistic growth curve to model. In countries with high per capita GDP, per capita copper consumption is likely to reach saturation and stabilize or perhaps reduce demand for copper. Most countries will achieve high incomes at some point. If earlier studies of high-income copper consumption rates hold in the future, 10 kg per capita of copper for 10 billion people expected before 2100 leads to estimated total annual copper consumption of 100 million tons. This worst-case demand estimate greatly exceeds projected copper from mines and recycling and ignores increased demand due to electrification scenarios and declines in demand due to declining population by 2100 and possible dematerialization.