{"title":"Some statistical problems involved in forecasting and estimating the spread of SARS-CoV-2 using Hawkes point processes and SEIR models","authors":"Frederic Schoenberg","doi":"10.1007/s10651-023-00591-6","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article reviews some of the statistical issues involved with modeling SARS-CoV02 (Covid-19) in Los Angeles County, California, using Hawkes point process models and SEIR models. The two types of models are compared, and their pros and cons are discussed. We also discuss particular statistical decisions, such as where to place the upper limits on y-axes, and whether to use a Bayesian or frequentist version of the model, how to estimate seroprevalence, and fitting the density of transmission times in the Hawkes model.</p>","PeriodicalId":50519,"journal":{"name":"Environmental and Ecological Statistics","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-11-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Environmental and Ecological Statistics","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10651-023-00591-6","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This article reviews some of the statistical issues involved with modeling SARS-CoV02 (Covid-19) in Los Angeles County, California, using Hawkes point process models and SEIR models. The two types of models are compared, and their pros and cons are discussed. We also discuss particular statistical decisions, such as where to place the upper limits on y-axes, and whether to use a Bayesian or frequentist version of the model, how to estimate seroprevalence, and fitting the density of transmission times in the Hawkes model.
期刊介绍：
Environmental and Ecological Statistics publishes papers on practical applications of statistics and related quantitative methods to environmental science addressing contemporary issues.
Emphasis is on applied mathematical statistics, statistical methodology, and data interpretation and improvement for future use, with a view to advance statistics for environment, ecology and environmental health, and to advance environmental theory and practice using valid statistics.
Besides clarity of exposition, a single most important criterion for publication is the appropriateness of the statistical method to the particular environmental problem. The Journal covers all aspects of the collection, analysis, presentation and interpretation of environmental data for research, policy and regulation. The Journal is cross-disciplinary within the context of contemporary environmental issues and the associated statistical tools, concepts and methods. The Journal broadly covers theory and methods, case studies and applications, environmental change and statistical ecology, environmental health statistics and stochastics, and related areas. Special features include invited discussion papers; research communications; technical notes and consultation corner; mini-reviews; letters to the Editor; news, views and announcements; hardware and software reviews; data management etc.
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