Dipali Vasudev Mestry, Md Aktar Ul Karim, Joyita Mukherjee, Amiya Ranjan Bhowmick
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
The fish species N. chitala is a freshwater fish that is widely distributed in African and Asian countries, including India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Thailand, and Indonesia. This species has been categorized as endangered (EN) in the Conservation Assessment and Management Plan. The study aims to investigate the cause of the species’ decline in their natural habitat. Using mathematical models supported by empirical data analysis, we explore the interaction of the species with other tropic levels and discover important parameters that may be attributed to the rapid decline. Based on the literature, we considered an intraguild predation (IGP) system consisting of three species, namely Chitala (IG predator), Mugil (IG prey), and shrimp (resource). Two variants of IGP models governed by three coupled differential equations are considered for data modeling purposes. Chitala depends only on Mugil and shrimp in one model. An alternative food source is available to Chitala in the second model. The models are estimated using the Bayesian modeling framework. Posterior estimates of the parameters for each model were obtained using the Gibbs algorithm, and the reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo method has been utilized for posterior model inference. Our findings suggest that the primary reason for the decline in Chitala is due to the reduced nutritional gain from the Mugil and reduced predation efficiency in acquiring shrimp as a food source in the unavailability of Mugil. This study may be useful to develop management strategies for Chitala conservation by emphasizing the regeneration of Mugil populations.
期刊介绍:
Environmental and Ecological Statistics publishes papers on practical applications of statistics and related quantitative methods to environmental science addressing contemporary issues.
Emphasis is on applied mathematical statistics, statistical methodology, and data interpretation and improvement for future use, with a view to advance statistics for environment, ecology and environmental health, and to advance environmental theory and practice using valid statistics.
Besides clarity of exposition, a single most important criterion for publication is the appropriateness of the statistical method to the particular environmental problem. The Journal covers all aspects of the collection, analysis, presentation and interpretation of environmental data for research, policy and regulation. The Journal is cross-disciplinary within the context of contemporary environmental issues and the associated statistical tools, concepts and methods. The Journal broadly covers theory and methods, case studies and applications, environmental change and statistical ecology, environmental health statistics and stochastics, and related areas. Special features include invited discussion papers; research communications; technical notes and consultation corner; mini-reviews; letters to the Editor; news, views and announcements; hardware and software reviews; data management etc.