Distinct anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol induced marine heatwaves

Abstract

In the era of escalating climate change, understanding human impacts on marine heatwaves (MHWs) becomes essential. This study harnesses climate model historical and single forcing simulations to delve into the individual roles of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols in shaping the characteristics of global MHWs over the past several decades. The results suggest that greenhouse gas variations lead to longer-lasting, more frequent, and intense MHWs. In contrast, anthropogenic aerosols markedly curbs the intensity and growth of MHWs. Further analysis of the sea surface temperature (SST) probability distribution reveals that anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols have opposing effects on the tails of the SST probability distribution, causing the tails to expand and contract, respectively. Climate extremes such as MHWs are accordingly promoted and reduced. Our study underscores the significant impacts of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols on MHWs, which go far beyond the customary concept that these anthropogenic forcings modulate climate extremes by shifting global SST probabilities via modifying the mean-state SST.