How leader's type shapes the effect of nuclear latency on dispute involvement

IF 1.7 2区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Conflict Management and Peace Science Pub Date : 2023-12-06 DOI:10.1177/07388942231209952
Benjamin Jones, Eleonora Mattiacci, Timothy Nordstrom
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Abstract

What is the effect of nuclear latency on states’ conflict behaviors? Defined as the ability to produce fissile material without the actual possession of nuclear weapons, nuclear latency is much more common in the international system than nuclear weapons are. Yet present studies might have underestimated its impact on conflict. We argue that, given its ambiguous nature as a dual-use technology, nuclear latency has the potential to significantly alter the effect of leader type on conflict. In particular, while conventional wisdom about hawks and doves suggests that the former should be more prone to conflict than the latter, nuclear latency blurs the distinction between leader's types. Bridging together studies of nuclear latency and leader type, we study how nuclear latency shapes the impact of leader type on the propensity of initiating conflict or being targeted. We find that in the absence of latency, hawkish leaders are more likely to initiate disputes than dovish leaders. However, latency muddies the waters. Thus, leader characteristics does not affect dispute initiation for latent states.
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领导者类型如何影响核潜伏期对争端参与的影响
核潜伏期对国家冲突行为的影响是什么?核潜伏期被定义为在不实际拥有核武器的情况下生产裂变材料的能力,在国际体系中比核武器更为常见。然而,目前的研究可能低估了它对冲突的影响。我们认为,鉴于其作为军民两用技术的模糊性质,核延迟有可能显著改变领导者类型对冲突的影响。特别是,虽然关于鹰派和鸽派的传统智慧表明,前者应该比后者更容易发生冲突,但核潜伏期模糊了领导人类型之间的区别。结合核潜伏期和领导者类型的研究,我们研究了核潜伏期如何塑造领导者类型对发起冲突或被攻击倾向的影响。我们发现,在没有延迟的情况下,鹰派领导人比鸽派领导人更有可能发起争端。然而,延迟会把水搅浑。因此,领导者特质并不影响潜在状态下的争端引发。
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来源期刊
Conflict Management and Peace Science
Conflict Management and Peace Science INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS-
CiteScore
3.90
自引率
4.80%
发文量
24
期刊介绍: Conflict Management and Peace Science is a peer-reviewed journal published five times a year from 2009. It contains scientific papers on topics such as: - international conflict; - arms races; - the effect of international trade on political interactions; - foreign policy decision making; - international mediation; - and game theoretic approaches to conflict and cooperation. Affiliated with the Peace Science Society (International), Conflict Management and Peace Science features original and review articles focused on news and events related to the scientific study of conflict and peace. Members of the Peace Science Society (International) receive an annual subscription to Conflict Management and Peace Science as a benefit of membership.
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