Pub Date : 2024-09-18DOI: 10.1177/07388942241270927
Andrew S Rosenberg, Nazli Avdan
Do border walls inhibit the spread of transnational terrorism? Previous research has primarily measured the volume of terrorism without explicitly modeling its diffusion or considering how walls might affect different groups differently. To address these oversights, the study adopts a network-based approach, analyzing the impact of border walls on the spread of violence among 63 extremist organizations from 1970 to 2017. The findings show that barriers generally inhibit diffusion, but their effectiveness varies significantly among groups. This research challenges policymakers who regard walls as a catch-all solution for terrorism, offering a fresh perspective on whether walls’ effects justify their cost.
{"title":"Assessing border walls’ varied impacts on terrorist group diffusion","authors":"Andrew S Rosenberg, Nazli Avdan","doi":"10.1177/07388942241270927","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942241270927","url":null,"abstract":"Do border walls inhibit the spread of transnational terrorism? Previous research has primarily measured the volume of terrorism without explicitly modeling its diffusion or considering how walls might affect different groups differently. To address these oversights, the study adopts a network-based approach, analyzing the impact of border walls on the spread of violence among 63 extremist organizations from 1970 to 2017. The findings show that barriers generally inhibit diffusion, but their effectiveness varies significantly among groups. This research challenges policymakers who regard walls as a catch-all solution for terrorism, offering a fresh perspective on whether walls’ effects justify their cost.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142248331","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-14DOI: 10.1177/07388942241267961
Courtenay R Monroe, Nathan W Monroe, Shengkuo Hu
Ideal point estimates, used as measures of state foreign policy preference, are typically constructed from country votes cast on resolutions in the plenary of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). In this article, we argue that revealed preferences on UNGA votes are dependent on the procedural context in which they are cast. We develop a theory of measurement and show empirically that constructing estimates using committee amendment votes yields more precise scores for countries with preferences that do not fall in the center of the policy space. Scholars should consider using both plenary and committee votes when operationalizing foreign policy preferences.
{"title":"Using committee amendments to improve estimates of state foreign policy preferences","authors":"Courtenay R Monroe, Nathan W Monroe, Shengkuo Hu","doi":"10.1177/07388942241267961","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942241267961","url":null,"abstract":"Ideal point estimates, used as measures of state foreign policy preference, are typically constructed from country votes cast on resolutions in the plenary of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). In this article, we argue that revealed preferences on UNGA votes are dependent on the procedural context in which they are cast. We develop a theory of measurement and show empirically that constructing estimates using committee amendment votes yields more precise scores for countries with preferences that do not fall in the center of the policy space. Scholars should consider using both plenary and committee votes when operationalizing foreign policy preferences.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142249018","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-19DOI: 10.1177/07388942241263028
Oliver Pamp, Paul W. Thurner, Paul Binder, Andreas Mehltretter
Do more weapons in the hands of rebel groups escalate civil wars? We address this question using a recently published dataset on the armaments of 270 non-state actors. We provide a comprehensive overview of their arsenals and utilize this information in a dyadic analysis that also considers the effects of governments’ weapons stock. We show that better-armed rebel groups are involved in higher-intensity conflicts only if they receive no external support. Moreover, conventional warfare is related to higher casualty numbers and the impact of arms provision to governments is conditional on the relative military strength of the opposing rebels.
{"title":"Arming to fight: Rebel-government militarization and the escalation of violence in civil wars","authors":"Oliver Pamp, Paul W. Thurner, Paul Binder, Andreas Mehltretter","doi":"10.1177/07388942241263028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942241263028","url":null,"abstract":"Do more weapons in the hands of rebel groups escalate civil wars? We address this question using a recently published dataset on the armaments of 270 non-state actors. We provide a comprehensive overview of their arsenals and utilize this information in a dyadic analysis that also considers the effects of governments’ weapons stock. We show that better-armed rebel groups are involved in higher-intensity conflicts only if they receive no external support. Moreover, conventional warfare is related to higher casualty numbers and the impact of arms provision to governments is conditional on the relative military strength of the opposing rebels.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213507","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-05DOI: 10.1177/07388942241267816
Sabine C Carey, Christian Gläßel, Katrin Paula
Can media have a lasting impact on attitudes in postwar countries? A lingering impact of media could substantially shape peace and security in postwar societies. Our quasi-experimental research design and original survey data utilize variation in the reception of an anti-government radio station in Nepal's Terai region, which was shut down after violent clashes. Our results show that individuals with access to anti-government broadcasts were less optimistic about peace, police and civic activism three years after the closure of the station. The study has implications for understanding the longer-term role of media for post-conflict attitudes and state-building.
{"title":"Media impact on perceptions in postwar societies: Insights from Nepal","authors":"Sabine C Carey, Christian Gläßel, Katrin Paula","doi":"10.1177/07388942241267816","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942241267816","url":null,"abstract":"Can media have a lasting impact on attitudes in postwar countries? A lingering impact of media could substantially shape peace and security in postwar societies. Our quasi-experimental research design and original survey data utilize variation in the reception of an anti-government radio station in Nepal's Terai region, which was shut down after violent clashes. Our results show that individuals with access to anti-government broadcasts were less optimistic about peace, police and civic activism three years after the closure of the station. The study has implications for understanding the longer-term role of media for post-conflict attitudes and state-building.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141936959","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-26DOI: 10.1177/07388942241261205
Harriet Goers, Kathleen Gallagher Cunningham, Laia Balcells
From Catalonia to Kurdistan to Scotland, referendums have increasingly become popular strategies of self-rule movements. Despite this, many referendums are considered failures by the movements (revealing a dearth of support), some are marred by violence, and few garner external backing. Given this, when are they likely to be employed? We argue that internal competition serves as one driving force for actors to use referendums as a way to gain or uphold status within the movement. Using novel data and two case studies, we highlight the ways these movements arrive at a vote for self-rule, underscoring the role of internal competition.
{"title":"Internal drivers of self-rule referendums","authors":"Harriet Goers, Kathleen Gallagher Cunningham, Laia Balcells","doi":"10.1177/07388942241261205","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942241261205","url":null,"abstract":"From Catalonia to Kurdistan to Scotland, referendums have increasingly become popular strategies of self-rule movements. Despite this, many referendums are considered failures by the movements (revealing a dearth of support), some are marred by violence, and few garner external backing. Given this, when are they likely to be employed? We argue that internal competition serves as one driving force for actors to use referendums as a way to gain or uphold status within the movement. Using novel data and two case studies, we highlight the ways these movements arrive at a vote for self-rule, underscoring the role of internal competition.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141778051","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-07DOI: 10.1177/07388942241255195
Sam R Bell, Risa Kitagawa
Civil society inclusion in peace processes has many positive externalities, but does inclusion lead to improved rights for civil society actors themselves? We theorize how civil society actors leverage peace processes to secure state commitments to an improved advocacy environment after conflict. Using new data on civil society participation in peace negotiations (1990–2020), we show that participation significantly increases the likelihood of a provision formalizing these actors’ procedural rights in the resulting peace agreement. This relationship is conditional on relatively low pre-agreement repression of civil society, suggesting a minimal threshold of freedoms for effective advocacy during negotiations. Civil society actors in conflict settings may allocate scarce advocacy resources to secure procedural protections of their post-conflict survival, not only principled outcomes. Our findings suggest a possible mechanism allowing civil society to influence longer-term policy outcomes after conflict.
{"title":"From participation to provision: How civil society secures procedural rights through peace negotiations","authors":"Sam R Bell, Risa Kitagawa","doi":"10.1177/07388942241255195","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942241255195","url":null,"abstract":"Civil society inclusion in peace processes has many positive externalities, but does inclusion lead to improved rights for civil society actors themselves? We theorize how civil society actors leverage peace processes to secure state commitments to an improved advocacy environment after conflict. Using new data on civil society participation in peace negotiations (1990–2020), we show that participation significantly increases the likelihood of a provision formalizing these actors’ procedural rights in the resulting peace agreement. This relationship is conditional on relatively low pre-agreement repression of civil society, suggesting a minimal threshold of freedoms for effective advocacy during negotiations. Civil society actors in conflict settings may allocate scarce advocacy resources to secure procedural protections of their post-conflict survival, not only principled outcomes. Our findings suggest a possible mechanism allowing civil society to influence longer-term policy outcomes after conflict.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141373231","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-05-08DOI: 10.1177/07388942241247953
Sara Norrevik, Mehwish Sarwari
As governments increasingly turn to defense cooperation agreements (DCAs) to institutionalize defense relations, there is little scholarly knowledge of the impact of these agreements in civil wars. Are DCA partners more likely to militarily intervene in civil conflicts together compared with countries without DCAs? While studies show that formal alliance commitments impact the likelihood of parties participating in foreign interventions, DCAs have received little attention in the literature even though DCAs between partner states are signed frequently and subject to change. This study argues that partners in DCAs are likely to provide external military support to the same conflict parties. Our theoretical model suggests that DCAs provide an arena for socialization where governments and military organizations that are DCA partners have repeated interactions. As a result of socialization, their foreign policy goals increasingly align, including their approach to military intervention in foreign conflicts. With access to similar weapons material, military training, and information, DCAs facilitate joint interventions between partner states. Examining the probability of intervention in civil conflicts during the period of 1980–2009, we find that countries that are DCA partners are more likely to provide military assistance to the same warring parties compared with countries without DCAs.
{"title":"If we cooperate together, we intervene together: Defense cooperation agreements and support to conflict parties","authors":"Sara Norrevik, Mehwish Sarwari","doi":"10.1177/07388942241247953","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942241247953","url":null,"abstract":"As governments increasingly turn to defense cooperation agreements (DCAs) to institutionalize defense relations, there is little scholarly knowledge of the impact of these agreements in civil wars. Are DCA partners more likely to militarily intervene in civil conflicts together compared with countries without DCAs? While studies show that formal alliance commitments impact the likelihood of parties participating in foreign interventions, DCAs have received little attention in the literature even though DCAs between partner states are signed frequently and subject to change. This study argues that partners in DCAs are likely to provide external military support to the same conflict parties. Our theoretical model suggests that DCAs provide an arena for socialization where governments and military organizations that are DCA partners have repeated interactions. As a result of socialization, their foreign policy goals increasingly align, including their approach to military intervention in foreign conflicts. With access to similar weapons material, military training, and information, DCAs facilitate joint interventions between partner states. Examining the probability of intervention in civil conflicts during the period of 1980–2009, we find that countries that are DCA partners are more likely to provide military assistance to the same warring parties compared with countries without DCAs.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140941029","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-27DOI: 10.1177/07388942241248027
Bradley C. Smith
This paper applies the logic of commitment problems to deliver insights about the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. In the canonical crisis bargaining framework, an anticipated power shift can cause bargaining failure. Bargaining breaks down in this context because a declining state reasons that fighting in the present from a strong position is preferable to negotiating in the future from a weaker position. I argue that this logic is relevant for understanding both Ukrainian and Russian decisionmaking in the lead-up to the invasion. The commitment problem logic also provides insight into the role of NATO in the conflict, highlighting flaws in existing arguments that the Russian invasion was “provoked” by NATO.
{"title":"Commitment problems and Russia's invasion of Ukraine","authors":"Bradley C. Smith","doi":"10.1177/07388942241248027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942241248027","url":null,"abstract":"This paper applies the logic of commitment problems to deliver insights about the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. In the canonical crisis bargaining framework, an anticipated power shift can cause bargaining failure. Bargaining breaks down in this context because a declining state reasons that fighting in the present from a strong position is preferable to negotiating in the future from a weaker position. I argue that this logic is relevant for understanding both Ukrainian and Russian decisionmaking in the lead-up to the invasion. The commitment problem logic also provides insight into the role of NATO in the conflict, highlighting flaws in existing arguments that the Russian invasion was “provoked” by NATO.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-04-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140811291","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-24DOI: 10.1177/07388942241243259
M. Onderco, Valerio Vignoli
Multilateral treaties are essential for the effectiveness of global disarmament efforts. Ratification delays have deep repercussions on international cooperation for disarmament. Yet what determines their duration? In this paper, we offer the first comprehensive study of multilateral disarmament treaty ratification, covering the period between 1976 and 2020. We test the effects of treaty legalization and a country's security situation on the ratification duration. States are slower to join treaties with a high degree of obligation, but faster to join treaties with high degrees of precision and delegation. Engagement in inter-state rivalries slows down ratification. In contrast, we find only statistically weak evidence that alliance embeddedness accelerates it.
{"title":"Treaty legalization, security interests, and ratification of multilateral disarmament treaties","authors":"M. Onderco, Valerio Vignoli","doi":"10.1177/07388942241243259","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942241243259","url":null,"abstract":"Multilateral treaties are essential for the effectiveness of global disarmament efforts. Ratification delays have deep repercussions on international cooperation for disarmament. Yet what determines their duration? In this paper, we offer the first comprehensive study of multilateral disarmament treaty ratification, covering the period between 1976 and 2020. We test the effects of treaty legalization and a country's security situation on the ratification duration. States are slower to join treaties with a high degree of obligation, but faster to join treaties with high degrees of precision and delegation. Engagement in inter-state rivalries slows down ratification. In contrast, we find only statistically weak evidence that alliance embeddedness accelerates it.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140661163","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-22DOI: 10.1177/07388942241244655
Scott Wolford
I introduce this issue's symposium on the Russo-Ukrainian War by giving a brief overview of the bargaining framework, which asks why states sometimes use war to resolve disputes despite common knowledge that fighting is wasteful. I describe two types of mechanism—costly war and costly peace—and briefly discuss each symposium contribution in relation to its proposed mechanism(s). I also discuss the advantages of the bargaining framework for identifying and ruling out potential causal mechanisms in historical cases and close with some suggestions for continued work in the modeling dialogue between theory and evidence in the study of war.
{"title":"The bargaining framework and Russia's invasion of Ukraine","authors":"Scott Wolford","doi":"10.1177/07388942241244655","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942241244655","url":null,"abstract":"I introduce this issue's symposium on the Russo-Ukrainian War by giving a brief overview of the bargaining framework, which asks why states sometimes use war to resolve disputes despite common knowledge that fighting is wasteful. I describe two types of mechanism—costly war and costly peace—and briefly discuss each symposium contribution in relation to its proposed mechanism(s). I also discuss the advantages of the bargaining framework for identifying and ruling out potential causal mechanisms in historical cases and close with some suggestions for continued work in the modeling dialogue between theory and evidence in the study of war.","PeriodicalId":51488,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Management and Peace Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140636720","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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