Analysis of age-specific fertility in India: Deterministic and non-deterministic modeling approaches

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to investigate the pattern of age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) in India using deterministic and non-deterministic approaches. Toward this end, we proposed statistical polynomial regression models to study the distributional pattern of ASFRs for total, rural, and urban women in India. Further, a comparative study considering selected skewed regression models was undertaken. For this study, secondary data on ASFR were collected from Sample Registration System, Statistical Report-2020, and from National Family Health Survey 5 (NFHS-5; 2019 – 2021). It was found that all three subcategories of ASFRs, namely, the total, rural, and urban ASFRs, followed the reciprocal biquadratic polynomial model. On the other hand, all three subcategories of ASFR follow the skew-normal type 2 distribution. Similar findings were also obtained and validated based on NFHS-5 data. Further, the chosen statistical models’ validity and stability were tested using various model validation techniques and model selection criteria.