An overview of the destructive re-entry analysis tools available in Europe: State of the art, latest advances, and open points

Abstract

Over the past 30 years, numerous methods and tools have been developed to simulate spacecraft breakup during atmospheric re-entry, predict the characteristics of the surviving fragments, and estimate the ground casualty risk. With the introduction of the Design for Demise (or simply D4D) concept, these tools have become increasingly vital in designing spacecraft that break up and burn up during re-entry, thus reducing the risk posed by impacting debris. To enhance the accuracy and efficiency of predictions, researchers have made continuous improvements in this field, especially in the last decade, but uncertainties and gaps in knowledge remain. This article provides an overview of the state-of-the-art, with a particular emphasis on tools developed in Europe. It covers the latest advancements and improvements, as well as novel techniques proposed in the field.