Solar photovoltaic waste and resource potential projections in Australia, 2022–2050

IF 11.2 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Resources Conservation and Recycling Pub Date : 2023-12-16 DOI:10.1016/j.resconrec.2023.107316

Verity Tan, Rong Deng, Renate Egan

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Abstract

Solar photovoltaic (PV) waste and resource projections are integral for end-of-life (EoL) management. Addressing gaps in Australian studies, this paper aims to produce improved projections from 2022 to 2050. This study uses up-to-date, location-based installation data, distributed practical lifetime estimates by system size, current literature on market share and material composition over time and recovery rates, and provides a closed loop material analysis. In 2050, cumulative PV waste is estimated at 2,000,000–3,000,000 tonnes for slow, conservative, and realistic forecast installations, though under ambitious installs, waste will be 1–2 times more. Additionally, in 5 years PV EoL silver and aluminium could supply on average 30 % of future PV demand, 50 % in 15 years, and even up to 100 % in 25 years, considering realistic or ambitious forecast installations. These findings seek to assist in establishing sustainable EoL PV management, including the planning of logistics, appropriate recycling methods, consumer-appropriate policy, and the integration of circularity.

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2022-2050 年澳大利亚太阳能光伏废物和资源潜力预测

太阳能光伏(PV)废物和资源预测是生命周期结束(EoL)管理不可或缺的一部分。为了解决澳大利亚研究中的差距，本文旨在对2022年至2050年进行改进预测。本研究使用了最新的、基于位置的安装数据、根据系统大小进行的分布式实际寿命估计、当前关于市场份额、材料成分随时间变化和回收率的文献，并提供了一个闭环材料分析。在2050年，根据缓慢、保守和现实的预测安装，累计光伏废物估计为200万至300万吨，尽管在雄心勃勃的安装下，废物将增加1-2倍。此外，考虑到现实或雄心勃勃的预测装置，在5年内，光伏EoL银和铝可以提供平均30%的未来光伏需求，在15年内达到50%，甚至在25年内达到100%。这些研究结果旨在协助建立可持续的生态效益光伏管理，包括规划物流、适当的回收方法、适合消费者的政策和循环一体化。

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来源期刊

Resources Conservation and Recycling 环境科学-工程：环境

CiteScore

22.90

自引率

6.10%

发文量

625

审稿时长

23 days

期刊介绍： The journal Resources, Conservation & Recycling welcomes contributions from research, which consider sustainable management and conservation of resources. The journal prioritizes understanding the transformation processes crucial for transitioning toward more sustainable production and consumption systems. It highlights technological, economic, institutional, and policy aspects related to specific resource management practices such as conservation, recycling, and resource substitution, as well as broader strategies like improving resource productivity and restructuring production and consumption patterns. Contributions may address regional, national, or international scales and can range from individual resources or technologies to entire sectors or systems. Authors are encouraged to explore scientific and methodological issues alongside practical, environmental, and economic implications. However, manuscripts focusing solely on laboratory experiments without discussing their broader implications will not be considered for publication in the journal.