A study on the future cyclone characteristics and its associated storm surge along the Bangladesh coast

IF 2.9 Q2 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL Quaternary Science Advances Pub Date : 2023-12-13 DOI:10.1016/j.qsa.2023.100157

Md. Abdul Al Mohit , Masaru Yamashiro , Md. Towhiduzzaman , Atish Kumar Joardar

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Abstract

This study has investigated the surge height along the Bangladesh coast due to the changes in future cyclone characteristics. Cyclone characteristics mainly translation speed, landfall angle, maximum sustained wind radius, genesis behavior etc., were investigated with the present and future cyclone data calibration. We have used the d4PDF, AGCM data, and BMD data for calibration. An equation for a vertical shallow water model was developed and used to determine the water level elevation resulting from the modified cyclone information. The cyclone modification information was made by the calibration of present and past cyclone data. It is found from the study that the west part of Bangladesh will face intense cyclones but the East part may face the dangerous cyclone in the future. We have also seen that changes in the characteristics of storms result in a major change of storm surge.

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关于孟加拉国沿海未来气旋特征及其相关风暴潮的研究

本研究调查了孟加拉国沿岸因未来气旋特征变化而产生的浪涌高度。气旋特征主要包括平移速度、着陆角、最大持续风半径、成因行为等，研究采用了现在和未来的气旋数据进行校准。我们使用了 d4PDF、AGCM 数据和 BMD 数据进行校准。我们开发了一个垂直浅水模型方程，用于确定修改后的气旋信息所产生的水位高程。气旋修正信息是通过校准现在和过去的气旋数据得出的。研究发现，孟加拉国西部将面临强气旋，但东部未来可能面临危险气旋。我们还发现，风暴特征的变化会导致风暴潮发生重大变化。

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