{"title":"Is Hong Kong still an entrepôt under the Sino‐U.S. trade war?","authors":"Terence Tai Leung Chong, Vincent Pok Ho Lo","doi":"10.1111/1468-0106.12442","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the Hong Kong economy from a trade intermediary's perspective. Using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) framework, we discover that trade‐related external shocks mainly affect the economy through re‐exports channel over the offshore trade channel. We observe that re‐exports shock does not transmit to the real economy through the employment channel. A puzzling phenomenon is that trade‐related employment has been in decline since 2008. Moreover, we notice that although the Sino‐U.S. trade war exerted much downward pressure on economic growth between 2018 and 2019, the trade intermediary sector swiftly recovered in 2020, reflecting the versatility of the external trade sector in Hong Kong.","PeriodicalId":46516,"journal":{"name":"Pacific Economic Review","volume":"70 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1000,"publicationDate":"2023-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Pacific Economic Review","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0106.12442","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract
This paper studies the Hong Kong economy from a trade intermediary's perspective. Using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) framework, we discover that trade‐related external shocks mainly affect the economy through re‐exports channel over the offshore trade channel. We observe that re‐exports shock does not transmit to the real economy through the employment channel. A puzzling phenomenon is that trade‐related employment has been in decline since 2008. Moreover, we notice that although the Sino‐U.S. trade war exerted much downward pressure on economic growth between 2018 and 2019, the trade intermediary sector swiftly recovered in 2020, reflecting the versatility of the external trade sector in Hong Kong.
期刊介绍：
The Pacific Economic Review (PER) publishes high-quality articles in all areas of economics, both the theoretical and empirical, and welcomes in particular analyses of economic issues in the Asia-Pacific area. Published five times a year from 2007, the journal is of interest to academic, government and corporate economists. The Pacific Economic Review is the official publication of the Hong Kong Economic Association and has a strong editorial team and international board of editors. As a highly acclaimed journal, the Pacific Economic Review is a source of valuable information and insight. Contributors include Nobel Laureates and leading scholars from all over the world.
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