This article proposes a 2‐period model featuring jointly habit formation, consumption externalities and asymmetric information to investigate their impacts on optimal labour and saving taxes. Regarding the effect of habit formation only, our model suggests that both labour taxation in the first period and a capital subsidy between the first and second period are used to deter consumption in the first period. However, when the impact of consumption externalities alone is considered, consumption externalities advocate for higher labour taxation for all agents. Finally, our quantitative results show that with the rising degree of consumption externalities, the discrepancy between marginal capital tax rates under full information and their values under asymmetric information falls, so does the change in the gap between the marginal labour income tax rates of the skilled and the unskilled. Conversely, as the degree of habit formation increases, the change in marginal capital tax rates under full information and under asymmetric information expands, so does the change in the gap between the marginal labour income tax rates of the skilled and the unskilled.
{"title":"Consumption externalities, habit formation and optimal dynamic non‐linear income taxation under asymmetric information","authors":"Yunmin Chen, Dongmeng Ren","doi":"10.1111/1468-0106.12455","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0106.12455","url":null,"abstract":"This article proposes a 2‐period model featuring jointly habit formation, consumption externalities and asymmetric information to investigate their impacts on optimal labour and saving taxes. Regarding the effect of habit formation only, our model suggests that both labour taxation in the first period and a capital subsidy between the first and second period are used to deter consumption in the first period. However, when the impact of consumption externalities alone is considered, consumption externalities advocate for higher labour taxation for all agents. Finally, our quantitative results show that with the rising degree of consumption externalities, the discrepancy between marginal capital tax rates under full information and their values under asymmetric information falls, so does the change in the gap between the marginal labour income tax rates of the skilled and the unskilled. Conversely, as the degree of habit formation increases, the change in marginal capital tax rates under full information and under asymmetric information expands, so does the change in the gap between the marginal labour income tax rates of the skilled and the unskilled.","PeriodicalId":46516,"journal":{"name":"Pacific Economic Review","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142267122","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Bans on child labour as mitigating measures to avoid the abuse of child labour have now been widely recognized to be ineffective and may be costly for low‐ and middle‐income countries. Evaluations of different social programmes and efforts by international organizations to reduce child labour provide the same conclusion. This paper explores how the existence of immigrant workers, a common economic condition for many of these countries, can be effectively used as a novel and cheap mechanism to mitigate the employment of child labour. I show that when immigrant workers are available at discounted wages, profit‐maximizing firms will switch from child labour to immigrant workers. From a policy standpoint, this suggests that conditions can be generated to move the economy to a no‐child‐labour equilibrium. Although the solution may be a second‐best for immigrant workers, it may help avoid the undesirable social consequences of child labour and at the same time ease the economic and non‐economic concerns about immigration.
{"title":"Can immigrant workers help to solve the child labour problem?","authors":"Bharati Basu","doi":"10.1111/1468-0106.12453","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0106.12453","url":null,"abstract":"Bans on child labour as mitigating measures to avoid the abuse of child labour have now been widely recognized to be ineffective and may be costly for low‐ and middle‐income countries. Evaluations of different social programmes and efforts by international organizations to reduce child labour provide the same conclusion. This paper explores how the existence of immigrant workers, a common economic condition for many of these countries, can be effectively used as a novel and cheap mechanism to mitigate the employment of child labour. I show that when immigrant workers are available at discounted wages, profit‐maximizing firms will switch from child labour to immigrant workers. From a policy standpoint, this suggests that conditions can be generated to move the economy to a no‐child‐labour equilibrium. Although the solution may be a second‐best for immigrant workers, it may help avoid the undesirable social consequences of child labour and at the same time ease the economic and non‐economic concerns about immigration.","PeriodicalId":46516,"journal":{"name":"Pacific Economic Review","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142223256","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Whether informed investors (e.g., professionals) trade stocks based on the fundamentals or ride on market sentiment is an empirical question, but few attempts have been made due to the lack of field data. We, therefore, conduct a laboratory experiment and examine if informed investors trade stocks based on their anticipation of less‐informed investors' valuation. In our experimental market, informed traders know the fundamental value of the stock; less‐informed traders do not know the accurate value and their valuation may be biased upwards or downwards. We find that informed traders ride on the (mis)valuations of less‐informed traders, and the speculative trades of the informed traders significantly affect stock prices. Our experimental result explains why stock prices are subject to the mass psychology sentiment even in markets with informed investors.
{"title":"Informed traders, beauty contest and stock price volatility: Evidence from laboratory markets","authors":"Shinichi Hirota, Takao Kusakawa, Tatsuyoshi Saijo, Yasuhiko Tanigawa","doi":"10.1111/1468-0106.12454","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0106.12454","url":null,"abstract":"Whether informed investors (e.g., professionals) trade stocks based on the fundamentals or ride on market sentiment is an empirical question, but few attempts have been made due to the lack of field data. We, therefore, conduct a laboratory experiment and examine if informed investors trade stocks based on their anticipation of less‐informed investors' valuation. In our experimental market, informed traders know the fundamental value of the stock; less‐informed traders do not know the accurate value and their valuation may be biased upwards or downwards. We find that informed traders ride on the (mis)valuations of less‐informed traders, and the speculative trades of the informed traders significantly affect stock prices. Our experimental result explains why stock prices are subject to the mass psychology sentiment even in markets with informed investors.","PeriodicalId":46516,"journal":{"name":"Pacific Economic Review","volume":"79 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141882212","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study investigates the international behaviour of individuals with imperfect information. We used both local and international tourist data pertaining to Hakone in Japan to focus on two natural disasters: the Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE) and volcanic activity on Mount Hakone. Hotel guests' responses to these shocks were estimated using smooth local projections. The responses of less‐informed foreign guests differed from those of well‐informed domestic guests. Because of imperfect information, such as sticky information, rational inattention and selected information through news media, the GEJE and its aftermath decreased the number of foreign guests at a rate greater and more persistent than that of domestic guests. Conversely, changes in volcanic alert levels slightly affect foreign guests because of the absence of information (or rational inattention); however, they have negative and persistent effects on domestic guests.
{"title":"Imperfect information and tourist's response to natural disasters","authors":"Yoshito Funashima, Kazuki Hiraga","doi":"10.1111/1468-0106.12445","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0106.12445","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates the international behaviour of individuals with imperfect information. We used both local and international tourist data pertaining to Hakone in Japan to focus on two natural disasters: the Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE) and volcanic activity on Mount Hakone. Hotel guests' responses to these shocks were estimated using smooth local projections. The responses of less‐informed foreign guests differed from those of well‐informed domestic guests. Because of imperfect information, such as sticky information, rational inattention and selected information through news media, the GEJE and its aftermath decreased the number of foreign guests at a rate greater and more persistent than that of domestic guests. Conversely, changes in volcanic alert levels slightly affect foreign guests because of the absence of information (or rational inattention); however, they have negative and persistent effects on domestic guests.","PeriodicalId":46516,"journal":{"name":"Pacific Economic Review","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140154222","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper studies the Hong Kong economy from a trade intermediary's perspective. Using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) framework, we discover that trade‐related external shocks mainly affect the economy through re‐exports channel over the offshore trade channel. We observe that re‐exports shock does not transmit to the real economy through the employment channel. A puzzling phenomenon is that trade‐related employment has been in decline since 2008. Moreover, we notice that although the Sino‐U.S. trade war exerted much downward pressure on economic growth between 2018 and 2019, the trade intermediary sector swiftly recovered in 2020, reflecting the versatility of the external trade sector in Hong Kong.
{"title":"Is Hong Kong still an entrepôt under the Sino‐U.S. trade war?","authors":"Terence Tai Leung Chong, Vincent Pok Ho Lo","doi":"10.1111/1468-0106.12442","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0106.12442","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the Hong Kong economy from a trade intermediary's perspective. Using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) framework, we discover that trade‐related external shocks mainly affect the economy through re‐exports channel over the offshore trade channel. We observe that re‐exports shock does not transmit to the real economy through the employment channel. A puzzling phenomenon is that trade‐related employment has been in decline since 2008. Moreover, we notice that although the Sino‐U.S. trade war exerted much downward pressure on economic growth between 2018 and 2019, the trade intermediary sector swiftly recovered in 2020, reflecting the versatility of the external trade sector in Hong Kong.","PeriodicalId":46516,"journal":{"name":"Pacific Economic Review","volume":"70 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2023-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138956769","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Editor's introduction to the special issue on ‘The Impact of Government Policies on Household Welfare in Asia’","authors":"C. Horioka","doi":"10.1111/1468-0106.12443","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0106.12443","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46516,"journal":{"name":"Pacific Economic Review","volume":" 13","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2023-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138994903","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The present paper reexamines the causal effect of working hours on workers’ mental health. We utilize Japan's 2010 reform of the Labor Standards Act as a social experiment to examine how the increased wage penalty for long overtime work affects working hours and workers’ mental health. Utilizing a unique panel dataset containing health behaviours as well as individual, household and workplace characteristics of male workers, we find that the wage penalty reform indeed succeeded in reducing overtime hours and total working hours and that the reductions contributed to better mental health of workers. Further empirical investigation suggests that the reduction effect of the reform on working time is homogeneous among age groups; however, the harmful effect of working time on mental health is large and statistically significant among young workers. Our results suggest that setting a high wage penalty for long overtime work effectively reduces overtime work and improves workers’ health outcomes, particularly for young people.
{"title":"The causal effects of working time on mental health: The effectiveness of the law reform raising the overtime wage penalty","authors":"Miki Kohara, Taisei Noda","doi":"10.1111/1468-0106.12441","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0106.12441","url":null,"abstract":"The present paper reexamines the causal effect of working hours on workers’ mental health. We utilize Japan's 2010 reform of the <i>Labor Standards Act</i> as a social experiment to examine how the increased wage penalty for long overtime work affects working hours and workers’ mental health. Utilizing a unique panel dataset containing health behaviours as well as individual, household and workplace characteristics of male workers, we find that the wage penalty reform indeed succeeded in reducing overtime hours and total working hours and that the reductions contributed to better mental health of workers. Further empirical investigation suggests that the reduction effect of the reform on working time is homogeneous among age groups; however, the harmful effect of working time on mental health is large and statistically significant among young workers. Our results suggest that setting a high wage penalty for long overtime work effectively reduces overtime work and improves workers’ health outcomes, particularly for young people.","PeriodicalId":46516,"journal":{"name":"Pacific Economic Review","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2023-12-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138567895","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Using data for manufacturing firms listed on China A‐share markets between 2003 and 2018, this research explores the impact of institutional investors on corporate green innovation. The study finds that pressure‐resistant institutional investors (PR investors) positively contribute to green innovation, whereas pressure‐sensitive institutional investors (PS investors) hinder it. In addition, this study examines the moderating effect of political ties, distinguishing between ascribed and achieved ties. Ascribed ties weaken the positive relationship between PR investors and green innovation, whereas achieved ties strengthen it and weaken the negative association between PS investors and green innovation. Moreover, the study investigates the influence of institutional development on the relationship between institutional investors and green innovation, and finds that managerial myopia is the mechanism through which institutional investors influence green innovation. Furthermore, this study reveals that there are heterogeneity effects among small and large firms, polluting and non‐polluting firms, and firms facing different levels of market competition. Overall, the study sheds new light on how institutional investors, acting as ‘invisible hands’, interact with political ties, acting as ‘visible hands’, to impact green innovation in transition economies.
{"title":"Institutional investors and corporate green innovation: Evidence from China","authors":"Zhen Yang, Dongwei Su, Shulin Xu, Xu Han","doi":"10.1111/1468-0106.12440","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0106.12440","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Using data for manufacturing firms listed on China A‐share markets between 2003 and 2018, this research explores the impact of institutional investors on corporate green innovation. The study finds that pressure‐resistant institutional investors (PR investors) positively contribute to green innovation, whereas pressure‐sensitive institutional investors (PS investors) hinder it. In addition, this study examines the moderating effect of political ties, distinguishing between ascribed and achieved ties. Ascribed ties weaken the positive relationship between PR investors and green innovation, whereas achieved ties strengthen it and weaken the negative association between PS investors and green innovation. Moreover, the study investigates the influence of institutional development on the relationship between institutional investors and green innovation, and finds that managerial myopia is the mechanism through which institutional investors influence green innovation. Furthermore, this study reveals that there are heterogeneity effects among small and large firms, polluting and non‐polluting firms, and firms facing different levels of market competition. Overall, the study sheds new light on how institutional investors, acting as ‘invisible hands’, interact with political ties, acting as ‘visible hands’, to impact green innovation in transition economies.","PeriodicalId":46516,"journal":{"name":"Pacific Economic Review","volume":"67 12","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135683730","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract In the context of a two‐period non‐monetary overlapping generations model with Cobb–Douglas preference and technological specifications, this paper explores the theoretical as well as quantitative interrelations between equilibrium (in)determinacy versus (i) a progressive tax schedule on wage income and (ii) a balanced‐budget rule with endogenous labour taxation. In sharp contrast to previous studies on a one‐sector representative‐agent macroeconomy, we find that both fiscal formulations can possibly operate as stabilizing instruments against cyclical fluctuations driven by agents' self‐fulfilling beliefs. The key policy implication of our no‐indeterminacy result is that depending on what is the underlying analytical environment, countercyclical income taxation may stabilize or destabilize the business cycle.
{"title":"Tax policy and aggregate stability in an overlapping generations model","authors":"Jang-Ting Guo, Yan Zhang","doi":"10.1111/1468-0106.12438","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0106.12438","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In the context of a two‐period non‐monetary overlapping generations model with Cobb–Douglas preference and technological specifications, this paper explores the theoretical as well as quantitative interrelations between equilibrium (in)determinacy versus (i) a progressive tax schedule on wage income and (ii) a balanced‐budget rule with endogenous labour taxation. In sharp contrast to previous studies on a one‐sector representative‐agent macroeconomy, we find that both fiscal formulations can possibly operate as stabilizing instruments against cyclical fluctuations driven by agents' self‐fulfilling beliefs. The key policy implication of our no‐indeterminacy result is that depending on what is the underlying analytical environment, countercyclical income taxation may stabilize or destabilize the business cycle.","PeriodicalId":46516,"journal":{"name":"Pacific Economic Review","volume":"16 5","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135220357","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This study assessed the factors allowing middle‐income countries to achieve higher income levels and thus escape the middle‐income trap (MIT). By deriving a stochastic production function using the Cornwell–Schmidt–Sickles (CSS) estimator and country panel data, we successfully distinguished between growth due to total factor productivity (TFP) and that attributable to various production inputs after controlling for random shocks and cross‐sectional dependence. We found that TFP growth was the main factor distinguishing middle‐income countries that have and have not escaped from the MIT; the former countries had significantly higher TFP growth.
{"title":"Middle‐income country trap and total factor productivity growth","authors":"Young Hoon Lee, Jungsoo Park","doi":"10.1111/1468-0106.12439","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0106.12439","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study assessed the factors allowing middle‐income countries to achieve higher income levels and thus escape the middle‐income trap (MIT). By deriving a stochastic production function using the Cornwell–Schmidt–Sickles (CSS) estimator and country panel data, we successfully distinguished between growth due to total factor productivity (TFP) and that attributable to various production inputs after controlling for random shocks and cross‐sectional dependence. We found that TFP growth was the main factor distinguishing middle‐income countries that have and have not escaped from the MIT; the former countries had significantly higher TFP growth.","PeriodicalId":46516,"journal":{"name":"Pacific Economic Review","volume":"9 3","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135315807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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