{"title":"Probabilistic evaluation of dynamic positioning operability with a Quasi-Monte Carlo approach","authors":"Francesco Mauro","doi":"10.21278/brod75105","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"During the design phase of an offshore unit, estimating the station-keeping capabilities of the dynamic positioning (DP) system is mandatory. This means, in conventional offshore applications, to determine the maximum sustainable wind speed as a function of the encounter heading, which the unit may counteract by employing the onboard actuators or mooring lines only. Besides the deterministic estimation of DP capability, it is possible to assess the operability of the DP system following a non-deterministic probabilistic process by employing the site-specific joint wind-wave distributions to model the environment. In such a case, the operability results from a Monte Carlo integration process. Here it is proposed to enhance the applicability of the probabilistic analysis of DP operability, investigating the application of a Quasi-Monte Carlo method. In this sense, the procedure uses quasi-random samplings following a Sobol sequence instead of employing random samples of the joint distributions. In this paper, the Quasi-Monte Carlo process is tested and compared on a reference ship, highlighting the improvements to the established probabilistic DP prediction concerning the number of calculations needed to estimate operability. The significant reduction of computational time makes the newly implemented method suitable for the early design stage applications.","PeriodicalId":55594,"journal":{"name":"Brodogradnja","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Brodogradnja","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.21278/brod75105","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, MARINE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
During the design phase of an offshore unit, estimating the station-keeping capabilities of the dynamic positioning (DP) system is mandatory. This means, in conventional offshore applications, to determine the maximum sustainable wind speed as a function of the encounter heading, which the unit may counteract by employing the onboard actuators or mooring lines only. Besides the deterministic estimation of DP capability, it is possible to assess the operability of the DP system following a non-deterministic probabilistic process by employing the site-specific joint wind-wave distributions to model the environment. In such a case, the operability results from a Monte Carlo integration process. Here it is proposed to enhance the applicability of the probabilistic analysis of DP operability, investigating the application of a Quasi-Monte Carlo method. In this sense, the procedure uses quasi-random samplings following a Sobol sequence instead of employing random samples of the joint distributions. In this paper, the Quasi-Monte Carlo process is tested and compared on a reference ship, highlighting the improvements to the established probabilistic DP prediction concerning the number of calculations needed to estimate operability. The significant reduction of computational time makes the newly implemented method suitable for the early design stage applications.
期刊介绍:
The journal is devoted to multidisciplinary researches in the fields of theoretical and experimental naval architecture and oceanology as well as to challenging problems in shipbuilding as well shipping, offshore and related shipbuilding industries worldwide. The aim of the journal is to integrate technical interests in shipbuilding, ocean engineering, sea and ocean shipping, inland navigation and intermodal transportation as well as environmental issues, overall safety, objects for wind, marine and hydrokinetic renewable energy production and sustainable transportation development at seas, oceans and inland waterways in relations to shipbuilding and naval architecture. The journal focuses on hydrodynamics, structures, reliability, materials, construction, design, optimization, production engineering, building and organization of building, project management, repair and maintenance planning, information systems in shipyards, quality assurance as well as outfitting, powering, autonomous marine vehicles, power plants and equipment onboard. Brodogradnja publishes original scientific papers, review papers, preliminary communications and important professional papers relevant in engineering and technology.