Probabilistic evaluation of dynamic positioning operability with a Quasi-Monte Carlo approach

IF 3.9 4区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, MARINE Brodogradnja Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI:10.21278/brod75105
Francesco Mauro
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Abstract

During the design phase of an offshore unit, estimating the station-keeping capabilities of the dynamic positioning (DP) system is mandatory. This means, in conventional offshore applications, to determine the maximum sustainable wind speed as a function of the encounter heading, which the unit may counteract by employing the onboard actuators or mooring lines only. Besides the deterministic estimation of DP capability, it is possible to assess the operability of the DP system following a non-deterministic probabilistic process by employing the site-specific joint wind-wave distributions to model the environment. In such a case, the operability results from a Monte Carlo integration process. Here it is proposed to enhance the applicability of the probabilistic analysis of DP operability, investigating the application of a Quasi-Monte Carlo method. In this sense, the procedure uses quasi-random samplings following a Sobol sequence instead of employing random samples of the joint distributions. In this paper, the Quasi-Monte Carlo process is tested and compared on a reference ship, highlighting the improvements to the established probabilistic DP prediction concerning the number of calculations needed to estimate operability. The significant reduction of computational time makes the newly implemented method suitable for the early design stage applications.
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用准蒙特卡洛方法对动态定位可操作性进行概率评估
在近海装置的设计阶段,必须估算动力定位(DP)系统的定点能力。这意味着,在传统的近海应用中,要确定最大持续风速与遭遇航向的函数关系,而该装置仅能通过使用船上推杆或系泊线来抵消风速。除了对 DP 能力进行确定性估算外,还可以利用特定地点的联合风浪分布来模拟环境,按照非确定性概率过程来评估 DP 系统的可操作性。在这种情况下,可操作性产生于蒙特卡洛集成过程。为提高 DP 可操作性概率分析的适用性,这里建议研究准蒙特卡罗方法的应用。从这个意义上说,该程序使用索布尔序列的准随机抽样,而不是使用联合分布的随机抽样。本文在一艘参考船上对准蒙特卡洛程序进行了测试和比较,强调了在估算可操作性所需的计算次数方面,该程序对现有概率 DP 预测的改进。计算时间的大幅减少使新实施的方法适用于早期设计阶段的应用。
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来源期刊
Brodogradnja
Brodogradnja ENGINEERING, MARINE-
CiteScore
4.30
自引率
38.90%
发文量
33
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: The journal is devoted to multidisciplinary researches in the fields of theoretical and experimental naval architecture and oceanology as well as to challenging problems in shipbuilding as well shipping, offshore and related shipbuilding industries worldwide. The aim of the journal is to integrate technical interests in shipbuilding, ocean engineering, sea and ocean shipping, inland navigation and intermodal transportation as well as environmental issues, overall safety, objects for wind, marine and hydrokinetic renewable energy production and sustainable transportation development at seas, oceans and inland waterways in relations to shipbuilding and naval architecture. The journal focuses on hydrodynamics, structures, reliability, materials, construction, design, optimization, production engineering, building and organization of building, project management, repair and maintenance planning, information systems in shipyards, quality assurance as well as outfitting, powering, autonomous marine vehicles, power plants and equipment onboard. Brodogradnja publishes original scientific papers, review papers, preliminary communications and important professional papers relevant in engineering and technology.
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