PROYEKSI TREN SUHU UDARA DI JAWA TIMUR BERDASARKAN SKENARIO RCP 4.5

Abstract

Changes in the pattern and intensity of climate parameters, including air temperature, can be used to detect climate changes. It is very important to study air temperature trends related to climate change in East Java because this region is one of the provinces that contributes the largest rice production in Indonesia. Food security is negatively impacted by climate change. The research aims to determine changes temperature trend in detail on a regional scale. Climate change detection is carried out by analyzing the air temperature index issued by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). Apart from looking at current conditions, this study examines projected future temperature trends using the RCP 4.5 scenario. RCP 4.5 is the scenario that most closely describes current climate conditions. Based on the research results, MPI-ESM-LR is the model that has the best accuracy compared to other methods. The air temperature index for the baseline period (1991-2020) shows an increasing trend of several significant intensity indices (p<0.05) at the maximum and minimum temperatures, which causes the air temperature during the day and at night to increase. The frequency index (TN10p TN90p, TX10p, and TX90p) shows a warming trend and several regions experience a significant upward trend. The projection period (2021-2050) shows an increasing trend in most of East Java and several indices such as TNn, TXn and TX90p show an increasing trend of warming which is higher than the baseline period.