Cold winds in the north: Three perspectives on the impact of Russia's war in Ukraine on security and international relations in the Arctic

Abstract

The article presents three perspectives on how Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has impacted international relations and security in the Arctic: a North European, a pan-Arctic and a Japanese-cum-North Pacific. We find a significant impact on the security situation in Northern Europe, including the European Arctic, notably in the Finish and Swedish decisions to join NATO. The consequences have been more limited from the circumpolar Arctic perspective, with the interruption of cooperation in the Arctic Council and in the international use of the Northern Sea Route as the most significant. Also from the Japanese perspective, the direct impact of the war has been more limited than in Northern Europe. Our analysis of Japan confirms, however, that both Arctic states and stakeholders seem to have adopted a wait and see approach to key issues, notably the future of the Arctic Council. The aim is likely to preserve the important gains made in Arctic governance in the last decades. How much reengagement with Russia will be politically palatable, and how long Russia's constructive approach to Arctic cooperation will last, remains to be seen, however. The political winds in the north are cold, but like the climate, not as cold as one could expect.