Modeling Price Policy of Industries within the Frames of Inter-Sectoral Balance Methodology

N. Moiseev, I. A. Vnukov
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Abstract

   The subject of inter-sectoral balance has been adequately developed in scientific community, however, we think that insufficient attention was paid to inserting price rates of industries in the model of inter-sectoral relations, as they produce a serious impact on making decisions concerning each industry production. The article deals with working-out a mathematic approach to modeling industry behavior in view of price policy development. The theoretical base of the research was formed by key provisions of the economic theory and the theory of inter-sectoral balance. The authors analyze dynamics of product prices set by industries with regard to inter-sectoral dependence and respective changes in output, added value, margin and volumes of sold products in each industry. As a result of the research the inter-sectoral model of shaping price policy of industries was built, which takes into account parameters of demand and urge of every industry for maximum profits. Different scenarios of changing demand parameters and production interactions were studied. Model experiments allowed authors to come to the conclusion that a rise in demand for one industry product cannot always increase production of related industries. As product price in the industry goes up, costs of other industries also rise, which can have an adverse effect on their product demand on the part of end customer. And on the contrary, a drop in demand for one industry product can support other related industries on constant demand factors at the expense of cost cutting. The proposed model could be useful for private and state sectors in planning investment policy at the same time it could reveal macro-economic trends, which is necessary to resolve problems of tardy or inadequate response of business entity on possible risks.
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部门间平衡方法框架下的产业价格政策建模
科学界已经对部门间平衡这一主题进行了充分的研究,但我们认为,在部门间关系模型中插入行业价格率的问题没有得到足够的重视,因为这些价格率会对有关各行业生产的决策产生严重影响。这篇文章探讨了从制定价格政策的角度建立行业行为模型的数学方法。研究的理论基础是经济理论和部门间平衡理论的主要规定。作者分析了各行业制定产品价格的动态,涉及行业间的依赖性以及各行业产量、附加值、利润率和销售量的相应变化。作为研究成果,建立了制定行业价格政策的部门间模型,该模型考虑到了需求参数和每个行业为获得最大利润的冲动。对需求参数变化和生产互动的不同情况进行了研究。通过模型实验,作者得出结论:对某一行业产品需求的增加并不总是能提高相关行业的产量。随着本行业产品价格的上涨,其他行业的成本也会上升,这可能会对最终客户对其产品的需求产生不利影响。相反,如果某一行业产品的需求下降,那么其他相关行业在需求不变的情况下也会以削减成本为代价。所提出的模型可以帮助私营和国有部门规划投资政策,同时它还可以揭示宏观经济趋势,这对于解决商业实体对可能出现的风险反应迟缓或不充分的问题十分必要。
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