Simulating socio-hydrological responses to climatic conditions in Phoenix, Arizona

Abstract

Providing adequate water supply to the growing number of urban residents will be a challenge faced by many utility managers throughout the remainder of this century. Though traditionally, water managers have looked toward supply-based solutions (e.g., expanding reservoirs), recent trends indicate a shift toward demand-side management (e.g., encouraging conservation behaviors). Here, we present an agent-based model (ABM) that simulates water supply as a function of the local climatic conditions and water consumption, which is, in part, determined based on water conservation attitudes. Our results indicate the ABM performs well (normalized root mean squared error <10%) for the study area. Further, we explore various hypothetical demand management scenarios by changing the water conservation attitudes of the households (i.e., the archetypes). This scenario testing reveals a statistically significant improvement to water availability after successfully changing water conservation attitudes to be more participatory. Ultimately, this study aims to understand the nuances of water conservation attitudes and aid utilities in their goal to better manage urban water demand.