An Interesting Correlation Between the Peak Slope and Peak Value of a Sunspot Cycle

IF 2.7 3区物理与天体物理 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Solar Physics Pub Date : 2024-02-05 DOI:10.1007/s11207-024-02256-4

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Abstract

The maximum slope of the sunspot number during the rising phase of a sunspot cycle has an excellent correlation with the maximum value of the sunspot number during that cycle. This is demonstrated using a Savitzky–Golay filter to both smooth and calculate the derivative of the sunspot-number data. Version 2 of the International Sunspot Number ( \(S\) ) is used to represent solar activity. The maximum of the slope during the rising phase of each cycle was correlated against the peaks of solar activity. Using three different correlation fits, the average predicted amplitude for Solar Cycle 25 is 130.7 ± 0.5, among the best correlations in solar predictions. A possible explanation for this correlation is given by the similar behavior of a shape function representing the time variation of the sunspot number. This universal function also provides the timing of the solar maximum by the time from the slope maximum to the peak in the function as late 2023 or early 2024. A Hilbert transform gives similar results, which are caused by the dominance of the 11-yr sunspot-cycle period in a Fourier fit of the sunspot number.

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太阳黑子周期的峰值斜率和峰值之间有趣的相关性

摘要在一个太阳黑子周期的上升阶段，太阳黑子数的最大斜率与该周期内太阳黑子数的最大值有极好的相关性。利用萨维茨基-戈莱滤波器对太阳黑子数数据进行平滑和导数计算，证明了这一点。第 2 版国际太阳黑子数（）被用来表示太阳活动。每个周期上升阶段的斜率最大值与太阳活动峰值相关。使用三种不同的相关拟合，太阳周期 25 的平均预测振幅为 130.7 ± 0.5，在太阳活动预测中属于最佳相关。这种相关性的一个可能解释是，代表太阳黑子数量时间变化的形状函数具有类似的行为。这个通用函数还提供了太阳极大值的时间，即从斜率极大值到函数峰值的时间为 2023 年末或 2024 年初。希尔伯特变换也给出了类似的结果，这是因为在太阳黑子数的傅立叶拟合中，11 年的太阳黑子周期占主导地位。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Solar Physics 地学天文-天文与天体物理

CiteScore

5.10

自引率

17.90%

发文量

146

审稿时长

1 months

期刊介绍： Solar Physics was founded in 1967 and is the principal journal for the publication of the results of fundamental research on the Sun. The journal treats all aspects of solar physics, ranging from the internal structure of the Sun and its evolution to the outer corona and solar wind in interplanetary space. Papers on solar-terrestrial physics and on stellar research are also published when their results have a direct bearing on our understanding of the Sun.