Net Interest Income of Greek Banks: is it a case of Bankflation?

IF 3.5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-03-01 DOI:10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.01.013
George Agiomirgianakis , Stavros Arvanitis , Emmanuel Mamatzakis , George Sfakianakis
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Abstract

On 27th of July 2022, the European Central Bank (ECB) responding to emerging inflation pressures increased the interest rate of the main refinancing operation to 0.5% up from 0.0% which was the norm for the second half of the previous decade. Since then, the ECB responded to inflationary shocks by increasing interest rates nine more times till 20 September 2023, reaching 4.5%. Following these unprecedented hikes in ECB interest rates, Greek banks responded swiftly by raising their lending interest rates, whereas they kept deposit rates at very low levels with the net interest margin (NIM) being at 2.6% in the first half of 2023 compared to 1.5% in the Euro-area while in November 2023, the Greek NIM was raised further to 4.83%, which was more than twice the corresponding NIM at 2.4% of Euro Area banks. Our dynamic panel VAR analysis study examines whether the oligopolistic structure of the Greek banking industry contributes to this divergence in NIM. This high NIM has induced a staggering increase in net interest income of Greek banks by 59.9% in 2023 compared to 2022 from 2.54 mil euros to 4.07 mil euros. During the same period, Greece reported a negative saving rate at − 4%, as people resorted to their savings to cope with greedflation in consumer goods. We show that successive interest rate hikes by the ECB aimed to reduce inflation have positively contributed to the sustainability of the Greek banking industry by building up stronger capital buffers and accelerating amortization of the deferred tax credits mainly through the channel of NIM. Alas, the high cost of diverging Greek NIM from the rest of the Euro Area hurts credit expansion and fuels existing greedflation by generating its own bankflation. Our study shows that EU policymakers should accelerate the banking union in the Euro Area which would enhance competitive pressures for Greek banks and potentially reduce NIM and tackle bankflation. The regaining of Greece’s investment grade gives the impetus to the convergence of Greek NIM to euro area ones.

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希腊银行的净利息收入:是银行通胀吗?
2022 年 7 月 27 日,欧洲中央银行(ECB)为应对新出现的通胀压力,将主要再融资操作利率从过去十年后半期的 0.0% 提高到 0.5%。此后,欧洲央行又九次上调利率以应对通胀冲击,直至 2023 年 9 月 20 日,利率达到 4.5%。在欧洲央行史无前例地提高利率后,希腊银行迅速做出反应,提高了贷款利率,同时将存款利率维持在非常低的水平,2023 年上半年的净息差(NIM)为 2.6%,而欧元区的净息差为 1.5%;2023 年 11 月,希腊的净息差进一步提高到 4.83%,是欧元区银行相应净息差(2.4%)的两倍多。我们的动态面板 VAR 分析研究探讨了希腊银行业的寡头垄断结构是否导致了 NIM 的差异。2023 年,希腊银行的净利息收入比 2022 年增长了 59.9%,从 254 万欧元增至 407 万欧元。同期,希腊的负储蓄率为-4%,因为人们通过储蓄来应对消费品的贪婪通胀。我们的研究表明,欧洲央行为降低通胀率而连续加息,这对希腊银行业的可持续发展起到了积极的促进作用,因为它主要通过净资产收益率的渠道建立了更强的资本缓冲,并加速了递延税款抵免的摊销。遗憾的是,希腊净资产收益率与欧元区其他国家不同的高成本损害了信贷扩张,并通过产生自身的银行通胀加剧了现有的贪婪通胀。我们的研究表明,欧盟决策者应加快欧元区银行业联盟的步伐,这将增强希腊银行的竞争压力,并有可能降低净资产收益率和应对银行通胀。希腊重新获得投资评级将推动希腊的净资产收益率向欧元区靠拢。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
6.20
自引率
11.40%
发文量
76
期刊介绍: The Journal of Policy Modeling is published by Elsevier for the Society for Policy Modeling to provide a forum for analysis and debate concerning international policy issues. The journal addresses questions of critical import to the world community as a whole, and it focuses upon the economic, social, and political interdependencies between national and regional systems. This implies concern with international policies for the promotion of a better life for all human beings and, therefore, concentrates on improved methodological underpinnings for dealing with these problems.
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