Sensitivity of HAFS-B Tropical Cyclone Forecasts to Planetary Boundary Layer and Microphysics Parameterizations

Abstract

Understanding how model physics impact tropical cyclone (TC) structure, motion, and evolution is critical for the development of TC forecast models. This study examines the impacts of microphysics and planetary boundary layer (PBL) physics on forecasts using the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS), which is newly operational in 2023. The “HAFS-B” version is specifically evaluated, and 3 sensitivity tests (for over 400 cases in 15 Atlantic TCs) are compared with retrospective HAFS-B runs. Sensitivity tests are generated by 1) Changing the microphysics in HAFS-B from Thompson to GFDL, 2) turning off the TC-specific PBL modifications that have been implemented in operational HAFS-B, and 3) combining the PBL and microphysics modifications. The forecasts are compared through standard verification metrics, and also examination of composite structure. Verification results show that Thompson microphysics slightly degrades the Day 3-4 forecast track in HAFS-B, but improves forecasts of long-term intensity. The TC-specific PBL changes lead to a reduction in a negative intensity bias and improvement in RI skill, but cause some degradation in prediction of 34-knot wind radii. Composites illustrate slightly deeper vortices in runs with the Thompson microphysics, and stronger PBL inflow with the TC-specific PBL modifications. These combined results demonstrate the critical role of model physics in regulating TC structure and intensity, and point to the need to continue to develop improvements to HAFS physics. The study also shows that the combination of both PBL and microphysics modifications (which are both included in one of the two versions of HAFS in the first operational implementation) leads to the best overall results.