The Cost Outcome Pathway Framework: Integrating socio-economic impacts to Adverse Outcome Pathways

Abstract

Several chemical families are linked to a loss of intellectual quotient (IQ) points in children. This may lead to reduced working productivity and/or lower wages in adulthood and contribute to increasing the substantial socio-economic burden worldwide. The Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) concept, that leverages existing data to formalize knowledge, is a well-accepted concept in risk assessment although it does not handle the socio-economic impact that environment-induced diseases may generate. Here, we propose to extend the AOP framework by bridging an adverse outcome (AO) to a cost outcome (CO) creating so-called Cost Outcome Pathways (COPs) for including the socio-economic costs of exposure to chemicals. As a case study, a COP related to neurodevelopmental toxicity was designed, with a connection between the AO decreased, IQ and the CO increased, socio-economic burden. For support to policymaking in the public health sector, this framework might also hold great potential for environmental exposure-related diseases such as cancer or obesity which are diseases with known detrimental socio-economic impacts.