Setting S&T perspective priorities in an era of complexity and uncertainty: a case for megacities

IF 2.3 Q3 REGIONAL & URBAN PLANNING Foresight Pub Date : 2024-02-28 DOI:10.1108/fs-10-2023-0215
Alexander Chulok, Maxim Kotsemir, Yadviga Radomirova, Sergey Shashnov
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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to create a methodological approach for identifying priority areas for science and technology (S&T) development and its empirical application within the city of Moscow. This research uncovers a wide range of multicultural and multidisciplinary global trends that will affect the development of major cities in an era of complexity and uncertainty, including the inherent complexity of urban contexts, demographic and socioeconomic trends, as well as scientific and ecological factors.

Design/methodology/approach

The methodological approach is based on classic foresight instruments. Its novelty lays in the blending of qualitative and quantitative methods specially selected as the most appropriate for the identification of S&T areas in an era of complexity and uncertainty, including horizon scanning, bibliometric analysis, expert surveys and the construction of composite indexes with respect to the scope and resources of the research and the selected object for empirical application – Moscow, which is one of the world’s largest megacities. The analysis was performed for the period of 2009–2018 and expert procedures took place in 2019.

Findings

As a result, 25 global trends were identified, evaluated and discussed over the course of an expert survey and subsequent expert events. Ten priority areas of S&T development were determined, including 62 technological sub-areas within them and the most important market niches for all identified technological sub-areas, which could be useful for the world’s megacities. The results of this study are illustrated using the construction sector. Based on the conducted research and results, a list of recommendations on S&T policy measures and instruments were suggested, including the creation of the Moscow Innovation Cluster, which by the end of 2023 contained more than 6,000 projects and initiatives, selected using the findings of this investigation.

Originality/value

This research contributes to the existing literature and research agenda of setting priorities for S&T development and shows how it can be done for a megacity. The blended foresight methodology that was created within the study satisfies the criteria of scientific originality, is repeatable for any interested researcher, is applicable to any other city in the world and demonstrates its high efficiency in empirical application. It could be used for creating new agenda items in S&T policy, setting S&T priorities for a megacity and integrating the results into decision-making processes. This study provides recommendations on the further implementation of the designed methodology and results into a policymaking system. Moreover, the example of the Moscow Innovation Cluster, which was created based on the results of our research, demonstrates these recommendations’ practical significance in real life, which is quite valuable. The limitation of this study is that it is not devoted to urban planning issues directly or the promotion of R&D areas; it is about setting promising S&T priorities in an era of complexity and uncertainty for megacities.

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在复杂和不确定的时代确定科技前景的优先事项:特大城市案例
本研究的目的是为确定科学技术(S&T)发展的优先领域及其在莫斯科市的实证应用创建一种方法论。这项研究揭示了在复杂和不确定的时代将影响大城市发展的各种多文化和多学科全球趋势,包括城市环境的内在复杂性、人口和社会经济趋势,以及科学和生态因素。它的新颖之处在于融合了定性和定量方法,这些方法都是专门为在复杂和不确定的时代确定科技领域而选择的最合适的方法,其中包括前景扫描、文献计量分析、专家调查以及根据研究范围和资源以及选定的实证应用对象--莫斯科(世界上最大的特大城市之一)--构建综合指数。分析的时间跨度为 2009-2018 年,专家程序于 2019 年进行。结果通过专家调查和随后的专家活动,确定、评估和讨论了 25 种全球趋势。确定了科技发展的十个优先领域,包括其中的 62 个技术子领域,以及所有确定的技术子领域中最重要的市场利基,这些对世界上的特大城市都可能有用。研究结果以建筑业为例进行说明。根据所进行的研究和结果,提出了一系列关于科技政策措施和手段的建议,其中包括创建莫斯科创新集群,到 2023 年底,该集群将包含 6000 多个项目和倡议,这些项目和倡议都是利用本次调查的结果筛选出来的。 原创性/价值 本研究为现有文献和研究议程设定科技发展优先事项做出了贡献,并展示了如何为特大城市设定优先事项。研究中创建的混合展望方法符合科学原创性的标准,任何感兴趣的研究人员都可以重复使用,适用于世界上任何其他城市,并证明了其在经验应用中的高效性。它可用于制定科技政策的新议程项目、确定特大城市的科技优先事项以及将结果纳入决策过程。本研究为进一步将所设计的方法和结果落实到决策系统中提供了建议。此外,根据我们的研究成果创建的莫斯科创新集群的例子也证明了这些建议在现实生活中的实际意义,这是非常有价值的。本研究的局限性在于,它不是直接针对城市规划问题或促进研发领域的发展,而是在特大城市充满复杂性和不确定性的时代,确定有前途的科技优先事项。
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来源期刊
Foresight
Foresight REGIONAL & URBAN PLANNING-
CiteScore
5.10
自引率
5.00%
发文量
45
期刊介绍: ■Social, political and economic science ■Sustainable development ■Horizon scanning ■Scientific and Technological Change and its implications for society and policy ■Management of Uncertainty, Complexity and Risk ■Foresight methodology, tools and techniques
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