Predicting and Preventing Gun Violence: An Experimental Evaluation of READI Chicago.

IF 11.1 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Quarterly Journal of Economics Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Epub Date: 2023-07-06 DOI:10.1093/qje/qjad031
Monica P Bhatt, Sara B Heller, Max Kapustin, Marianne Bertrand, Christopher Blattman
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Abstract

Gun violence is the most pressing public safety problem in American cities. We report results from a randomized controlled trial (N=2,456) of a community-researcher partnership called the Rapid Employment and Development Initiative (READI) Chicago. The program offered an 18-month job alongside cognitive behavioral therapy and other social support. Both algorithmic and human referral methods identified men with strikingly high scope for gun violence reduction: for every 100 people in the control group, there were 11 shooting and homicide victimizations during the 20-month outcome period. Fifty-five percent of the treatment group started programming, comparable to take-up rates in programs for people facing far lower mortality risk. After 20 months, there is no statistically significant change in an index combining three measures of serious violence, the study's primary outcome. Yet there are signs that this program model has promise. One of the three measures, shooting and homicide arrests, declines 65 percent (p=0.13 after multiple testing adjustment). Because shootings are so costly, READI generates estimated social savings between $182,000 and $916,000 per participant (p=0.03), implying a benefit-cost ratio between 4:1 and 18:1. Moreover, participants referred by outreach workers-a pre-specified subgroup-show enormous declines in both arrests and victimizations for shootings and homicides (79 and 43 percent, respectively) that remain statistically significant even after multiple testing adjustments. These declines are concentrated among outreach referrals with higher predicted risk, suggesting that human and algorithmic targeting may work better together.

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预测和预防枪支暴力:芝加哥 READI 实验评估。
枪支暴力是美国城市最紧迫的公共安全问题。我们报告了一项随机对照试验(N=2,456)的结果,该试验是社区与研究人员合作开展的,名为 "芝加哥快速就业与发展计划"(READI)。该项目在提供认知行为疗法和其他社会支持的同时,还提供一份为期 18 个月的工作。通过算法和人工转介方法,确定了具有显著减少枪支暴力范围的男性:在 20 个月的结果期内,对照组中每 100 人中就有 11 人成为枪击和凶杀案的受害者。治疗组中有 55% 的人开始接受治疗,其接受率与针对死亡风险低得多的人的治疗项目的接受率相当。20 个月后,该研究的主要结果,即综合三项严重暴力事件的指数,在统计上没有显著变化。但有迹象表明,这种计划模式大有可为。三项指标中的一项,即枪击和凶杀案逮捕率下降了 65%(多重测试调整后,P=0.13)。由于枪击案代价高昂,READI 为每位参与者节省的社会成本估计在 18.2 万美元到 91.6 万美元之间(P=0.03),这意味着收益成本比在 4:1 到 18:1 之间。此外,由外展工作者--一个预先指定的子群体--转介的参与者在枪击案和凶杀案中的被捕率和受害率都有大幅下降(分别为 79% 和 43%),即使经过多重测试调整后仍具有显著的统计学意义。这些下降主要集中在预测风险较高的外展转介人员中,这表明人工和算法目标定位可以更好地协同工作。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
24.20
自引率
2.20%
发文量
42
期刊介绍: The Quarterly Journal of Economics stands as the oldest professional journal of economics in the English language. Published under the editorial guidance of Harvard University's Department of Economics, it comprehensively covers all aspects of the field. Esteemed by professional and academic economists as well as students worldwide, QJE holds unparalleled value in the economic discourse.
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