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Predicting and Preventing Gun Violence: An Experimental Evaluation of READI Chicago. 预测和预防枪支暴力:芝加哥 READI 实验评估。
IF 11.1 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Epub Date: 2023-07-06 DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjad031
Monica P Bhatt, Sara B Heller, Max Kapustin, Marianne Bertrand, Christopher Blattman

Gun violence is the most pressing public safety problem in American cities. We report results from a randomized controlled trial (N=2,456) of a community-researcher partnership called the Rapid Employment and Development Initiative (READI) Chicago. The program offered an 18-month job alongside cognitive behavioral therapy and other social support. Both algorithmic and human referral methods identified men with strikingly high scope for gun violence reduction: for every 100 people in the control group, there were 11 shooting and homicide victimizations during the 20-month outcome period. Fifty-five percent of the treatment group started programming, comparable to take-up rates in programs for people facing far lower mortality risk. After 20 months, there is no statistically significant change in an index combining three measures of serious violence, the study's primary outcome. Yet there are signs that this program model has promise. One of the three measures, shooting and homicide arrests, declines 65 percent (p=0.13 after multiple testing adjustment). Because shootings are so costly, READI generates estimated social savings between $182,000 and $916,000 per participant (p=0.03), implying a benefit-cost ratio between 4:1 and 18:1. Moreover, participants referred by outreach workers-a pre-specified subgroup-show enormous declines in both arrests and victimizations for shootings and homicides (79 and 43 percent, respectively) that remain statistically significant even after multiple testing adjustments. These declines are concentrated among outreach referrals with higher predicted risk, suggesting that human and algorithmic targeting may work better together.

枪支暴力是美国城市最紧迫的公共安全问题。我们报告了一项随机对照试验(N=2,456)的结果,该试验是社区与研究人员合作开展的,名为 "芝加哥快速就业与发展计划"(READI)。该项目在提供认知行为疗法和其他社会支持的同时,还提供一份为期 18 个月的工作。通过算法和人工转介方法,确定了具有显著减少枪支暴力范围的男性:在 20 个月的结果期内,对照组中每 100 人中就有 11 人成为枪击和凶杀案的受害者。治疗组中有 55% 的人开始接受治疗,其接受率与针对死亡风险低得多的人的治疗项目的接受率相当。20 个月后,该研究的主要结果,即综合三项严重暴力事件的指数,在统计上没有显著变化。但有迹象表明,这种计划模式大有可为。三项指标中的一项,即枪击和凶杀案逮捕率下降了 65%(多重测试调整后,P=0.13)。由于枪击案代价高昂,READI 为每位参与者节省的社会成本估计在 18.2 万美元到 91.6 万美元之间(P=0.03),这意味着收益成本比在 4:1 到 18:1 之间。此外,由外展工作者--一个预先指定的子群体--转介的参与者在枪击案和凶杀案中的被捕率和受害率都有大幅下降(分别为 79% 和 43%),即使经过多重测试调整后仍具有显著的统计学意义。这些下降主要集中在预测风险较高的外展转介人员中,这表明人工和算法目标定位可以更好地协同工作。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of Public School Choice: Evidence from Los Angeles’ Zones of Choice 公立学校选择的影响:来自洛杉矶学区选择的证据
IF 13.7 1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-10-11 DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjad052
Christopher Campos, Caitlin Kearns
Does a school district that expands school choice provide better outcomes for students than a neighborhood-based assignment system? This paper studies the Zones of Choice (ZOC) program, a school choice initiative of the Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD) that created small high school markets in some neighborhoods but left attendance zone boundaries in place throughout the rest of the district. We study market-level impacts of choice on student achievement and college enrollment using a differences-in-differences design. Student outcomes in ZOC markets increased markedly, narrowing achievement and college enrollment gaps between ZOC neighborhoods and the rest of the district. The effects of ZOC are larger for schools exposed to more competition, supporting the notion that competition is a key channel. Demand estimates suggest families place substantial weight on schools’ academic quality, providing schools with competition-induced incentives to improve their effectiveness. The evidence demonstrates that public school choice programs have the potential to improve school quality and reduce neighborhood-based disparities in educational opportunity.
比起以社区为基础的分配系统,扩大学校选择的学区是否能为学生提供更好的结果?本文研究了选择学区(ZOC)计划,这是洛杉矶联合学区(LAUSD)的一项择校倡议,该计划在一些社区创建了小型高中市场,但在整个学区的其他地方保留了出勤区边界。我们使用差异中的差异设计研究了市场层面的选择对学生成绩和大学入学率的影响。ZOC市场的学生成绩显著提高,缩小了ZOC社区与该地区其他社区之间的成绩和大学入学率差距。ZOC对面临更多竞争的学校的影响更大,这支持了竞争是关键渠道的观点。对需求的估计表明,家庭非常重视学校的学术质量,为学校提供竞争激励,以提高其效率。证据表明,公立学校选择计划有可能提高学校质量,减少基于社区的教育机会差距。
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引用次数: 0
THe Economic Impacts of COVID-19: Evidence from a New Public Database Built Using Private Sector Data COVID-19的经济影响:来自利用私营部门数据建立的新公共数据库的证据
1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-10-04 DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjad048
Raj Chetty, John Friedman, Nathaniel Hendren, Michael Stepner
Abstract We build a publicly available database that tracks economic activity in the U.S. at a granular level in real time using anonymized data from private companies. We report weekly statistics on consumer spending, business revenues, job postings, and employment rates disaggregated by county, sector, and income group. Using the publicly available data, we show how the COVID-19 pandemic affected the economy by analyzing heterogeneity in its impacts across subgroups. High-income individuals reduced spending sharply in March 2020, particularly in sectors that require in-person interaction. This reduction in spending greatly reduced the revenues of small businesses in affluent, dense areas. Those businesses laid off many of their employees, leading to widespread job losses, especially among low-wage workers in such areas. High-wage workers experienced a “V-shaped” recession that lasted a few weeks, whereas low-wage workers experienced much larger, more persistent job losses. Even though consumer spending and job postings had recovered fully by December 2021, employment rates in low-wage jobs remained depressed in areas that were initially hard hit, indicating that the temporary fall in labor demand led to a persistent reduction in labor supply. Building on this diagnostic analysis, we evaluate the impacts of fiscal stimulus policies designed to stem the downward spiral in economic activity. Cash stimulus payments led to sharp increases in spending early in the pandemic, but much smaller responses later in the pandemic, especially for high-income households. Real-time estimates of marginal propensities to consume provided better forecasts of the impacts of subsequent rounds of stimulus payments than historical estimates. Overall, our findings suggest that fiscal policies can stem secondary declines in consumer spending and job losses, but cannot restore full employment when the initial shock to consumer spending arises from health concerns. More broadly, our analysis demonstrates how public statistics constructed from private sector data can support many research and real-time policy analyses, providing a new tool for empirical macroeconomics.
我们建立了一个公开可用的数据库,使用来自私营公司的匿名数据,实时跟踪美国的经济活动。我们每周报告消费者支出、商业收入、工作岗位和就业率的统计数据,这些数据按县、部门和收入群体分类。利用可公开获得的数据,我们通过分析各子群体影响的异质性,展示了COVID-19大流行对经济的影响。高收入人群在2020年3月大幅减少了支出,特别是在需要面对面互动的行业。这种支出的减少大大减少了富裕、人口稠密地区小企业的收入。这些企业解雇了许多员工,导致大规模失业,特别是在这些地区的低薪工人中。高工资工人经历了持续数周的“v型”衰退,而低工资工人则经历了更大、更持久的失业。尽管到2021年12月,消费者支出和就业岗位已经完全恢复,但在最初受到重创的地区,低薪工作的就业率仍然低迷,这表明劳动力需求的暂时下降导致了劳动力供应的持续减少。在此诊断分析的基础上,我们评估了旨在遏制经济活动螺旋式下滑的财政刺激政策的影响。现金刺激支出在大流行初期导致支出大幅增加,但在大流行后期的反应却小得多,特别是对高收入家庭而言。对边际消费倾向的实时估计,可以比历史估计更好地预测后续几轮刺激支出的影响。总体而言,我们的研究结果表明,财政政策可以阻止消费者支出和失业的二次下降,但当消费者支出的最初冲击源于健康问题时,财政政策无法恢复充分就业。更广泛地说,我们的分析表明,从私营部门数据构建的公共统计数据如何支持许多研究和实时政策分析,为实证宏观经济学提供了一种新工具。
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引用次数: 2
A Retrieved-Context Theory of Financial Decisions 财务决策的检索语境理论
IF 13.7 1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-10-02 DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjad050
Jessica A Wachter, Michael Jacob Kahana
Studies of human memory indicate that features of an event evoke memories of prior associated contextual states, which in turn become associated with the current event’s features. This retrieved-context mechanism allows the remote past to influence the present, even as agents gradually update their beliefs about their environment. We apply a version of retrieved-context theory, drawn from the literature on human memory, to explain three types of evidence in the financial economics literature: the role of early-life experience in shaping investment choices, occurrence of financial crises, and the impact of fear on asset allocation. These applications suggest a recasting of neoclassical rational expectations in terms of beliefs as governed by principles of human memory.
对人类记忆的研究表明,一个事件的特征会唤起对先前相关情境状态的记忆,而这些记忆又会与当前事件的特征相关联。这种检索上下文机制允许遥远的过去影响现在,即使代理逐渐更新他们对环境的信念。我们运用从人类记忆文献中提取的检索语境理论来解释金融经济学文献中的三种证据:早期生活经历在塑造投资选择中的作用、金融危机的发生以及恐惧对资产配置的影响。这些应用表明,根据人类记忆原则所支配的信念,对新古典理性预期进行了重塑。
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引用次数: 0
Organizational Structure and Pricing: Evidence from a Large U.S. Airline 组织结构和定价:来自美国一家大型航空公司的证据
IF 13.7 1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-09-28 DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjad051
Ali Hortaçsu, Olivia R Natan, Hayden Parsley, Timothy Schwieg, Kevin R Williams
Firms facing complex objectives often decompose the problems they face, delegating different parts of the decision to distinct subunits. Using comprehensive data and internal models from a large U.S. airline, we establish that airline pricing is not well approximated by a model of the firm as a unitary decision-maker. We show that observed prices, however, can be rationalized by accounting for organizational structure and for the decisions by departments that are tasked with supplying inputs to the observed pricing heuristic. Simulating the prices the firm would charge if it were a rational, unitary decision-maker results in lower welfare than we estimate under observed practices. Finally, we discuss why counterfactual estimates of welfare and market power may be biased if prices are set through decomposition, but we instead assume that they are set by unitary decision-makers.
面对复杂目标的公司经常分解他们所面临的问题,将决策的不同部分委派给不同的子单元。利用美国一家大型航空公司的综合数据和内部模型,我们确定航空公司定价不能很好地近似于公司作为单一决策者的模型。然而,我们表明,观察到的价格可以通过考虑组织结构和负责向观察到的定价启发式提供输入的部门的决策来合理化。如果企业是一个理性的、单一的决策者,那么对其定价的模拟结果将比我们在观察到的实践下估计的要低。最后,我们讨论了为什么如果价格是通过分解设定的,那么对福利和市场力量的反事实估计可能会有偏差,但我们假设它们是由单一决策者设定的。
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引用次数: 0
Monitoring for Waste: Evidence from Medicare Audits 监测浪费:来自医疗保险审计的证据
1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-09-28 DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjad049
Maggie Shi
Abstract This paper examines the tradeoffs of monitoring for wasteful public spending. By penalizing unnecessary spending, monitoring improves the quality of public expenditure and incentivizes firms to invest in compliance technology. I study a large Medicare program that monitored for unnecessary health care spending and consider its effect on government savings, provider behavior, and patient health. Every dollar Medicare spent on monitoring generated ${$}$24–29 in government savings. The majority of savings stem from the deterrence of future care, rather than reclaimed payments from prior care. I do not find evidence that the health of the marginal patient is harmed, indicating that monitoring primarily deters low-value care. Monitoring does increase provider administrative costs, but these costs are mostly incurred up-front and include investments in technology to assess the medical necessity of care.
摘要本文考察了监控浪费公共支出的权衡。通过惩罚不必要的支出,监督提高了公共支出的质量,并激励企业投资于合规技术。我研究了一个大型的医疗保险计划,该计划监测了不必要的医疗保健支出,并考虑了它对政府储蓄、提供者行为和患者健康的影响。医疗保险在监控上每花费1美元,就会为政府节省24-29美元。大部分的节省来自对未来护理的威慑,而不是从先前护理中收回的款项。我没有发现证据表明边缘病人的健康受到损害,这表明监测主要是阻止低价值的护理。监测确实增加了提供者的管理成本,但这些成本大多是预先产生的,包括对评估护理的医疗必要性的技术投资。
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引用次数: 0
Grantmaking, Grading on a Curve, and the Paradox of Relative Evaluation in Nonmarkets 拨款、曲线评分与非市场中相对评价的悖论
1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-09-18 DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjad046
Jérôme Adda, Marco Ottaviani
Abstract The paper develops a model of nonmarket allocation of resources such as the awarding of grants to meritorious projects, honors to outstanding students, or journal slots to quality publications. On the supply side, the available budget of grants is awarded to applicants who are evaluated most favorably according to the noisy information available to reviewers. On the demand side, stronger candidates are more likely to obtain grants and thus self-select into applying, given that applications are costly. We establish that if evaluation is perfect, grading on a curve inefficiently discourages even the very best candidates from applying. More generally, when the budget is insufficient to award grants to all applicants, the equilibrium unravels if information is symmetric enough—the paradox of relative evaluation. Leveraging a technique based on the quantile function pioneered by Lehmann, we characterize a broad set of nonmarket allocation rules under which an increase in evaluation noise in a field (or course) raises equilibrium applications in that field, and reduces applications in all other fields. We empirically confirm these comparative statics by exploiting a change in the rule for apportioning the total budget to applications in different fields at the European Research Council, showing that a one standard deviation increase in own evaluation noise leads to a 0.4 standard deviation increase in the number of applications and budget share. Moreover, we derive insights for the design of evaluation institutions, particularly regarding the endogenous choice of noise by fields or courses and the optimal aggregation of fields into panels.
摘要:本文建立了一个非市场资源配置模型,如向有价值的项目授予资助,向优秀学生授予荣誉,或向优质出版物授予期刊名额。在供应方面,可用的拨款预算被授予根据审稿人可获得的嘈杂信息进行最有利评估的申请人。在需求方面,考虑到申请费用高昂,实力较强的候选人更有可能获得资助,从而自主选择申请。我们确定,如果评估是完美的,那么在曲线上评分是无效的,即使是最优秀的候选人也不会申请。更一般地说,当预算不足以向所有申请者发放资助时,如果信息足够对称,平衡就会被打破——这就是相对评估的悖论。利用Lehmann首创的基于分位数函数的技术,我们描述了一套广泛的非市场分配规则,在该规则下,一个领域(或课程)中评估噪声的增加会提高该领域的均衡应用,并减少所有其他领域的应用。我们通过利用欧洲研究理事会将总预算分配给不同领域的应用程序的规则的变化,从经验上证实了这些比较静态数据,表明自己的评估噪声增加一个标准差,导致应用程序数量和预算份额增加0.4个标准差。此外,我们还获得了评估机构设计的见解,特别是关于领域或课程噪声的内生选择以及领域到面板的最佳聚合。
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引用次数: 0
Inference on Winners 关于赢家的推论
1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-09-18 DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjad043
Isaiah Andrews, Toru Kitagawa, Adam McCloskey
Abstract Policymakers, firms, and researchers often choose among multiple options based on estimates. Sampling error in the estimates used to guide choice leads to a winner’s curse, since we are more likely to select a given option precisely when we overestimate its effectiveness. This winner’s curse biases our estimates for selected options upwards and can invalidate conventional confidence intervals. This paper develops estimators and confidence intervals that eliminate this winner’s curse. We illustrate our results by studying selection of job-training programs based on estimated earnings effects and selection of neighborhoods based on estimated economic opportunity. We find that our winner’s curse corrections can make an economically significant difference to conclusions, but still allow informative inference.
决策者、企业和研究人员经常根据估算在多个选项中做出选择。用于指导选择的估计中的抽样误差会导致赢家的诅咒,因为当我们高估一个给定的选项的有效性时,我们更有可能准确地选择它。这种“赢家诅咒”会使我们对所选选项的估计偏上,并使传统的置信区间失效。本文提出了消除这种“赢家诅咒”的估计量和置信区间。我们通过研究基于估计收入效应的职业培训计划选择和基于估计经济机会的社区选择来说明我们的结果。我们发现,我们的赢家诅咒修正可以在经济上对结论产生重大影响,但仍然允许信息推断。
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引用次数: 0
Violence Against Women at Work 工作中对妇女的暴力
IF 13.7 1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-09-18 DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjad045
Abi Adams-Prassl, Kristiina Huttunen, Emily Nix, Ning Zhang
In this paper, we link every police report in Finland to administrative data to identify violence between colleagues, and the economic consequences for victims, perpetrators, and firms. This new approach to observe when one colleague attacks another overcomes previous data constraints limiting evidence on this phenomenon to self-reported surveys that do not identify perpetrators. We document large, persistent labor market impacts of between-colleague violence on victims and perpetrators. Male perpetrators experience substantially weaker consequences after attacking female colleagues. Perpetrators’ relative economic power in male-female violence partly explains this asymmetry. Turning to broader implications for firm recruitment and retention, we find that male-female violence causes a decline in the proportion of women at the firm, both because fewer new women are hired and current female employees leave. Management plays a key role in mediating the impacts on the wider workforce. Only male-managed firms lose women. Female-managed firms exhibit a key difference relative to male-managed firms: male perpetrators are less likely to remain employed after attacking their female colleagues.
在本文中,我们将芬兰的每一份警察报告与行政数据联系起来,以确定同事之间的暴力行为,以及受害者、肇事者和公司的经济后果。这种观察同事攻击他人的新方法克服了以往的数据限制,将这一现象的证据局限于无法识别肇事者的自我报告调查。我们记录了同事间暴力对受害者和施暴者的巨大、持续的劳动力市场影响。男性行凶者在攻击女性同事后所受到的影响要小得多。施暴者在男女暴力中的相对经济实力部分解释了这种不对称。转向对公司招聘和保留更广泛的影响,我们发现男女暴力导致公司女性比例下降,这既是因为新雇佣的女性减少了,也是因为现有的女性员工离开了。管理层在调节对更广泛劳动力的影响方面发挥着关键作用。只有男性管理的公司才会失去女性。与男性管理的公司相比,女性管理的公司表现出一个关键的区别:男性行凶者在攻击女同事后不太可能继续被雇佣。
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引用次数: 3
Wealth of Two Nations: The U.S. Racial Wealth Gap, 1860–2020 《两国财富:1860-2020年美国种族贫富差距》
1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-09-18 DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjad044
Ellora Derenoncourt, Chi Hyun Kim, Moritz Kuhn, Moritz Schularick
Abstract The racial wealth gap is the largest of the economic disparities between Black and white Americans, with a white-to-Black per capita wealth ratio of 6 to 1. It is also among the most persistent. In this paper, we construct the first continuous series on white-to-Black per capita wealth ratios from 1860 to 2020, drawing on historical census data, early state tax records, and historical waves of the Survey of Consumer Finances, among other sources. Incorporating these data into a parsimonious model of wealth accumulation for each racial group, we document the role played by initial conditions, income growth, savings behavior, and capital returns in the evolution of the gap. Given vastly different starting conditions under slavery, racial wealth convergence would remain a distant scenario, even if wealth-accumulating conditions had been equal across the two groups since Emancipation. Relative to this equal-conditions benchmark, we find that observed convergence has followed an even slower path over the last 150 years, with convergence stalling after 1950. Since the 1980s, the wealth gap has widened again as capital gains have predominantly benefited white households, and convergence via income growth and savings has come to a halt.
种族财富差距是美国黑人与白人之间最大的经济差距,白人与黑人的人均财富比为6比1。它也是最持久的。在本文中,我们利用历史人口普查数据、早期州税收记录和消费者财务调查的历史浪潮等来源,构建了1860年至2020年白人与黑人人均财富比率的第一个连续系列。将这些数据整合到每个种族群体财富积累的简约模型中,我们记录了初始条件、收入增长、储蓄行为和资本回报在差距演变中的作用。考虑到奴隶制度下不同的起始条件,种族财富趋同仍然是一个遥远的场景,即使自奴隶解放以来,两个群体的财富积累条件是平等的。相对于这个等条件基准,我们发现,在过去150年里,观察到的收敛速度甚至更慢,在1950年之后,收敛速度停滞不前。自上世纪80年代以来,随着资本收益主要惠及白人家庭,贫富差距再次扩大,而通过收入增长和储蓄实现的趋同已经停止。
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引用次数: 0
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Quarterly Journal of Economics
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