The Impact of Academic Publications over the Last Decade on Historical Bitcoin Prices Using Generative Models

IF 5.1 3区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS Journal of Theoretical and Applied Electronic Commerce Research Pub Date : 2024-03-06 DOI:10.3390/jtaer19010029

Adela Bâra, Simona-Vasilica Oprea

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Abstract

Since 2012, researchers have explored various factors influencing Bitcoin prices. Up until the end of July 2023, more than 9100 research papers on cryptocurrencies were published and indexed in the Web of Science Clarivate platform. The objective of this paper is to analyze the impact of publications on Bitcoin prices. This study aims to uncover significant themes within these research articles, focusing on cryptocurrencies in general and Bitcoin specifically. The research employs latent Dirichlet allocation to identify key topics from the unstructured abstracts. To determine the optimal number of topics, perplexity and topic coherence metrics are calculated. Additionally, the abstracts are processed using BERT-transformers and Word2Vec and their potential to predict Bitcoin prices is assessed. Based on the results, while the research helps in understanding cryptocurrencies, the potential of academic publications to influence Bitcoin prices is not significant, demonstrating a weak connection. In other words, the movements of Bitcoin prices are not influenced by the scientific writing in this specific field. The primary topics emerging from the analysis are the blockchain, market dynamics, transactions, pricing trends, network security, and the mining process. These findings suggest that future research should pay closer attention to issues like the energy demands and environmental impacts of mining, anti-money laundering measures, and behavioral aspects related to cryptocurrencies.

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使用生成模型分析过去十年学术出版物对比特币历史价格的影响

自 2012 年以来，研究人员一直在探索影响比特币价格的各种因素。截至 2023 年 7 月底，共有 9100 多篇关于加密货币的研究论文发表，并被科学网 Clarivate 平台收录。本文旨在分析论文发表对比特币价格的影响。本研究旨在揭示这些研究文章中的重要主题，重点关注一般加密货币和比特币。研究采用了潜在 Dirichlet 分配法，从非结构化摘要中识别关键主题。为了确定主题的最佳数量，计算了困惑度和主题一致性指标。此外，还使用 BERT 变换器和 Word2Vec 对摘要进行处理，并评估其预测比特币价格的潜力。结果表明，虽然研究有助于理解加密货币，但学术出版物影响比特币价格的潜力并不显著，显示出一种微弱的联系。换句话说，比特币价格的走势并未受到这一特定领域科学著作的影响。分析得出的主要议题包括区块链、市场动态、交易、定价趋势、网络安全和挖矿过程。这些研究结果表明，未来的研究应更密切地关注采矿的能源需求和环境影响、反洗钱措施以及与加密货币相关的行为方面等问题。

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来源期刊

Journal of Theoretical and Applied Electronic Commerce Research BUSINESS-

CiteScore

9.50

自引率

3.60%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Theoretical and Applied Electronic Commerce Research (JTAER) has been created to allow researchers, academicians and other professionals an agile and flexible channel of communication in which to share and debate new ideas and emerging technologies concerned with this rapidly evolving field. Business practices, social, cultural and legal concerns, personal privacy and security, communications technologies, mobile connectivity are among the important elements of electronic commerce and are becoming ever more relevant in everyday life. JTAER will assist in extending and improving the use of electronic commerce for the benefit of our society.