Regional sea level response to external forcings from the 20th to the 21st century

IF 4.8 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Journal of Climate Pub Date : 2024-03-14 DOI:10.1175/jcli-d-23-0427.1
Zhen Liu, Changlin Chen, Guihua Wang, Shouwei Li, Shouhua Liu
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Abstract

Abstract Using a range of Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), we study the response of dynamic sea level (DSL) to external anthropogenic climate forcing [greenhouse gases (GHGs), aerosols, and stratospheric ozone] with a focus on the differences over the 20th and 21st century. In the second half of the 20th century, the DSL nonuniformity in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) was relatively small due to a cancellation between the effects of increasing GHGs and aerosols. In contrast, the DSL signal in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) over this period was large because stratospheric ozone depletion reinforced the effects of increasing GHGs. In the 21st century, the DSL response has been intensified in the NH because the warming effects of diminishing aerosols have acted to reinforce the effects of increasing GHGs. Meanwhile the distribution of SH DSL has also become uneven although stratospheric ozone recovery has partially offset the effects of rising GHGs. Using a global ocean circulation model, we decompose the changes in 21st century DSL into distinct responses to surface forcings including sea surface temperature, salinity, and wind stress. Our results show that the dipole-like pattern of DSL in the North Pacific can be attributed largely to sea surface warming, while the dipole-like pattern in the North Atlantic is attributed to subpolar surface salinity freshening. The belted pattern of DSL changes in the Southern Ocean is induced by both surface warming and intensifying/poleward-shifting westerly winds.
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20 世纪至 21 世纪区域海平面对外部作用力的响应
摘要 我们利用耦合模式相互比较项目第六阶段(CMIP6)的一系列探测和归因模式相互比较项目(DAMIP)模拟,研究了动态海平面(DSL)对外部人为气候作用力[温室气体(GHGs)、气溶胶和平流层臭氧]的响应,重点是 20 世纪和 21 世纪的差异。在 20 世纪下半叶,北半球(NH)的 DSL 非均匀性相对较小,原因是温室气体和气溶胶增加的影响相互抵消。相比之下,这一时期南半球(SH)的 DSL 信号很大,因为平流层臭氧消耗加强了温室气体增加的影响。在 21 世纪,由于气溶胶减少的变暖效应加强了温室气体增加的效应,因此北半球的 DSL 反应更加强烈。与此同时,尽管平流层臭氧的恢复部分抵消了温室气体增加的影响,但深海 DSL 的分布也变得不均衡。利用全球海洋环流模式,我们将 21 世纪 DSL 的变化分解为对海面温度、盐度和风压等表面作用力的不同响应。我们的研究结果表明,北太平洋DSL的偶极模式主要归因于海面变暖,而北大西洋的偶极模式则归因于副极地海面盐度清新。南大洋 DSL 的带状变化模式是由海面变暖和西风增强/前移共同引起的。
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来源期刊
Journal of Climate
Journal of Climate 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
9.30
自引率
14.30%
发文量
490
审稿时长
7.5 months
期刊介绍: The Journal of Climate (JCLI) (ISSN: 0894-8755; eISSN: 1520-0442) publishes research that advances basic understanding of the dynamics and physics of the climate system on large spatial scales, including variability of the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and cryosphere; past, present, and projected future changes in the climate system; and climate simulation and prediction.
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