Multicycle Parameter Estimations in Coupled Earth System Models Based on Multiscale Sensitivity Responses in the Context of Low-Order Models

Abstract

Abstract Climate model simulations tend to drift away from the real world because of model errors induced by an incomplete understanding and implementation of dynamics and physics. Parameter estimation uses the data assimilation methods to optimize model parameters, which minimizes model errors by incorporating observations into the model through state-parameter covariance. However, traditional parameter estimation schemes that simultaneously estimate multiple parameters using observations could fail to reduce model errors because of the low signal-to-noise ratio in the covariance. Here, based on the saturation time scales of model sensitivity that depend on different parameters and model components, we design a new multicycle parameter estimation scheme, where each cycle is determined by the saturation time scale of sensitivity of the model state associated with observations in each climate system component. The new scheme is evaluated using two low-order models. The results show that due to high signal-to-noise ratios sustained during the parameter estimation process, the new scheme consistently reduces model errors as the number of estimated parameters increases. The new scheme may improve comprehensive coupled climate models by optimizing multiple parameters with multisource observations, thereby addressing the multiscale nature of component motions in the Earth system.