Future study of revenue sources in the social security organization with the scenario planning approach

IF 2.3 Q3 REGIONAL & URBAN PLANNING Foresight Pub Date : 2024-03-15 DOI:10.1108/fs-11-2022-0165
Seyed Hadi Arabi, Mohammad Hasan Maleki, Hamed Ansari
{"title":"Future study of revenue sources in the social security organization with the scenario planning approach","authors":"Seyed Hadi Arabi, Mohammad Hasan Maleki, Hamed Ansari","doi":"10.1108/fs-11-2022-0165","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Purpose</h3>\n<p>The purpose of this study is to identify the drivers and future scenarios of Iran’s Social Security Organization.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Design/methodology/approach</h3>\n<p>The research is applied in terms of orientation and mixed in terms of methodology. In this research, the methods of theme analysis, root definitions, fuzzy Delphi and Cocoso were used. The theoretical population is the managers and senior experts of the social security organization, and the sampling method was done in a judgmental way. The tools of data collection were interviews and questionnaires. The interview tool was used to extract the main and subdrivers of the research and develop the scenarios.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Findings</h3>\n<p>Through theme analysis, 35 subdrivers were extracted in the form of economic, sociocultural, financial and investment, policy, marketing, environmental and legal themes. Due to the large number of subdrivers, these factors were screened with fuzzy Delphi. Eleven drivers had defuzzied coefficient higher than 0.7 and were selected for final prioritization. The final drivers were prioritized with the CoCoSo technique, and the two drivers of social security holdings governance and state of government revenues had the highest priority. Based on these two drivers, four scenarios of prosperity, resilient social security, unstable development and collapse have been developed.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Originality/value</h3>\n<p>Some of the suggestions of the research are: using the capacity of FinTechs and financial startups to invest the government revenues of the organization, using digital technologies such as business intelligence for more efficient decisions and developing corporate governance in the organization.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->","PeriodicalId":51620,"journal":{"name":"Foresight","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Foresight","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1108/fs-11-2022-0165","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"REGIONAL & URBAN PLANNING","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to identify the drivers and future scenarios of Iran’s Social Security Organization.

Design/methodology/approach

The research is applied in terms of orientation and mixed in terms of methodology. In this research, the methods of theme analysis, root definitions, fuzzy Delphi and Cocoso were used. The theoretical population is the managers and senior experts of the social security organization, and the sampling method was done in a judgmental way. The tools of data collection were interviews and questionnaires. The interview tool was used to extract the main and subdrivers of the research and develop the scenarios.

Findings

Through theme analysis, 35 subdrivers were extracted in the form of economic, sociocultural, financial and investment, policy, marketing, environmental and legal themes. Due to the large number of subdrivers, these factors were screened with fuzzy Delphi. Eleven drivers had defuzzied coefficient higher than 0.7 and were selected for final prioritization. The final drivers were prioritized with the CoCoSo technique, and the two drivers of social security holdings governance and state of government revenues had the highest priority. Based on these two drivers, four scenarios of prosperity, resilient social security, unstable development and collapse have been developed.

Originality/value

Some of the suggestions of the research are: using the capacity of FinTechs and financial startups to invest the government revenues of the organization, using digital technologies such as business intelligence for more efficient decisions and developing corporate governance in the organization.

查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
利用情景规划方法对社会保障组织收入来源的未来研究
目的本研究的目的是确定伊朗社会保障组织的驱动因素和未来情景。本研究采用了主题分析法、根定义法、模糊德尔菲法和可可索法。理论研究对象为社会保障机构的管理人员和高级专家,抽样方法为判断法。数据收集工具是访谈和问卷。通过主题分析,提取了 35 个子驱动因素,分别为经济、社会文化、金融与投资、政策、营销、环境和法律主题。由于子驱动因素较多,我们对这些因素进行了模糊德尔菲筛选。有 11 个驱动因素的模糊系数高于 0.7,被选中进行最后的优先排序。采用 CoCoSo 技术对最终驱动因素进行了优先排序,其中社会保险持有治理和政府收入状况这两个驱动因素的优先级最高。在这两个驱动因素的基础上,形成了繁荣、有弹性的社会保障、不稳定的发展和崩溃四种情景。原创性/价值本研究的一些建议包括:利用金融科技公司和金融初创企业的能力对组织的政府收入进行投资,利用商业智能等数字技术提高决策效率,以及发展组织的公司治理。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 去求助
来源期刊
Foresight
Foresight REGIONAL & URBAN PLANNING-
CiteScore
5.10
自引率
5.00%
发文量
45
期刊介绍: ■Social, political and economic science ■Sustainable development ■Horizon scanning ■Scientific and Technological Change and its implications for society and policy ■Management of Uncertainty, Complexity and Risk ■Foresight methodology, tools and techniques
期刊最新文献
Technology foresight in Indonesia: developing scenarios to determine electrical vehicle research priority for future innovation Exploring the relationship between small and medium-sized enterprises innovation and organizational performance: a prospective study on the industrial sector in Ecuador Examining sustainable consumption patterns through green purchase behavior and digital media engagement: a case of Pakistan’s postmillennials Achieving the United Nations sustainable development goals – innovation diffusion and business model innovations Who wants cryptocurrency? The effects of expectations and conjectures
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1