Future study of revenue sources in the social security organization with the scenario planning approach

IF 2.3 Q3 REGIONAL & URBAN PLANNING Foresight Pub Date : 2024-03-15 DOI:10.1108/fs-11-2022-0165
Seyed Hadi Arabi, Mohammad Hasan Maleki, Hamed Ansari
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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to identify the drivers and future scenarios of Iran’s Social Security Organization.

Design/methodology/approach

The research is applied in terms of orientation and mixed in terms of methodology. In this research, the methods of theme analysis, root definitions, fuzzy Delphi and Cocoso were used. The theoretical population is the managers and senior experts of the social security organization, and the sampling method was done in a judgmental way. The tools of data collection were interviews and questionnaires. The interview tool was used to extract the main and subdrivers of the research and develop the scenarios.

Findings

Through theme analysis, 35 subdrivers were extracted in the form of economic, sociocultural, financial and investment, policy, marketing, environmental and legal themes. Due to the large number of subdrivers, these factors were screened with fuzzy Delphi. Eleven drivers had defuzzied coefficient higher than 0.7 and were selected for final prioritization. The final drivers were prioritized with the CoCoSo technique, and the two drivers of social security holdings governance and state of government revenues had the highest priority. Based on these two drivers, four scenarios of prosperity, resilient social security, unstable development and collapse have been developed.

Originality/value

Some of the suggestions of the research are: using the capacity of FinTechs and financial startups to invest the government revenues of the organization, using digital technologies such as business intelligence for more efficient decisions and developing corporate governance in the organization.

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利用情景规划方法对社会保障组织收入来源的未来研究
目的本研究的目的是确定伊朗社会保障组织的驱动因素和未来情景。本研究采用了主题分析法、根定义法、模糊德尔菲法和可可索法。理论研究对象为社会保障机构的管理人员和高级专家,抽样方法为判断法。数据收集工具是访谈和问卷。通过主题分析,提取了 35 个子驱动因素,分别为经济、社会文化、金融与投资、政策、营销、环境和法律主题。由于子驱动因素较多,我们对这些因素进行了模糊德尔菲筛选。有 11 个驱动因素的模糊系数高于 0.7,被选中进行最后的优先排序。采用 CoCoSo 技术对最终驱动因素进行了优先排序,其中社会保险持有治理和政府收入状况这两个驱动因素的优先级最高。在这两个驱动因素的基础上,形成了繁荣、有弹性的社会保障、不稳定的发展和崩溃四种情景。原创性/价值本研究的一些建议包括:利用金融科技公司和金融初创企业的能力对组织的政府收入进行投资,利用商业智能等数字技术提高决策效率,以及发展组织的公司治理。
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来源期刊
Foresight
Foresight REGIONAL & URBAN PLANNING-
CiteScore
5.10
自引率
5.00%
发文量
45
期刊介绍: ■Social, political and economic science ■Sustainable development ■Horizon scanning ■Scientific and Technological Change and its implications for society and policy ■Management of Uncertainty, Complexity and Risk ■Foresight methodology, tools and techniques
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