Historical Analysis of the Effects of Drought on Rice and Maize Yields in Southeast Asia

Abstract

This study performs an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to study the relationship between rice and maize productivities and the different time scales of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), including 1-month, 6-month, and 12-month time scales in Southeast Asia during the years 1970–2019. For the 1-month time scale, the averaged SPEI values are in the range of −1.0 to 1.0, indicating a moderate degree of dryness and humidity. Both 6-month and 12-month time scales suggest that many countries in Southeast Asia are experiencing mostly wet conditions, with SPEI values reaching up to 1.5. The relationship analysis by using EOF was indicated by the first and second principal components (PC1 and PC2) suggesting that drought events exhibit a positive orientation to crop productivity, especially maize in Southeast Asia. The pattern of climate oscillations, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is likely related to crop productivity in Southeast Asia. The findings emphasize the importance of considering temporal climatic patterns in agricultural decision-making, with implications for enhancing regional climate resilience and ensuring sustainable food security in the face of global climate change.