Minimum-variance-based outlier detection method using forward-search model error in geodetic networks

Abstract

Abstract. Geodetic observations are crucial for monitoring landslides, crustal movements, and volcanic activity. They are often integrated with data from interdisciplinary studies, including paleo-seismological, geological, and interferometric synthetic aperture radar observations, to analyze earthquake hazards. However, outliers in geodetic observations can significantly impact the accuracy of estimation results if not reliably identified. Therefore, assessing the outlier detection model's reliability is imperative to ensure accurate interpretations. Conventional and robust methods are based on the additive bias model, which may cause type-I and type-II errors. However, outliers can be regarded as additional unknown parameters in the Gauss–Markov model. It is based on modeling the outliers as unknown parameters, considering as many combinations as possible of outliers selected from the observation set. In addition, this method is expected to be more effective than conventional methods as it is based on the principle of minimal variance and eliminates the interdependence of decisions made in iterations. The primary purpose of this study is to seek an efficient outlier detection model in the geodetic networks. The efficiency of the proposed model was measured and compared with the robust and conventional methods by the mean success rate (MSR) indicator of different types and magnitudes of outliers. Thereby, this model enhances the MSR by almost 40 %–45 % compared to the Baarda and Danish (with the variance unknown case) method for multiple outliers. Besides, the proposed model is 20 %–30 % more successful than the others in the low-controllability observations of the leveling network.