Economic impact analysis of developing the JR Haneda Airport Access Line

Asian Transport Studies Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI:10.1016/j.eastsj.2024.100128

Tetsuji Sato , Yuta Ito , Yuta Tsuzuki

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Abstract

The East Japan Railway Company is planning a new access railway line to the Tokyo International (Haneda) Airport. This paper proposes an evaluation method for the development of the new airport access line considering the socioeconomic characteristics of the Greater Tokyo Area and indicates what is needed to increase its social value. As the evaluation method, we develop an econometric model that considers commuters’ trip behaviors across prefectures and the relationship between the increased number of Meeting, Incentive Travel, Convention, Exhibition and Event (MICE) visitors and the regional economy. We also conduct a simulation analysis using an empirical econometric model and a cost-effectiveness analysis based on multiple scenarios. The results indicate that a 50% increase in MICE visitors is needed to make the present discounted value of the total increase in the gross regional product larger than the construction cost of the line.

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开发 JR 羽田机场交通线的经济影响分析

东日本旅客铁道公司正在规划一条通往东京国际（羽田）机场的新铁路线。本文结合大东京地区的社会经济特点，提出了新机场通道线路开发的评估方法，并指出了提高其社会价值所需的条件。作为评估方法，我们建立了一个计量经济学模型，该模型考虑了乘客在各都道府县的出行行为，以及会议、奖励旅游、大会、展览和活动（MICE）游客数量的增加与地区经济之间的关系。我们还使用实证计量经济学模型进行了模拟分析，并根据多种方案进行了成本效益分析。结果表明，会展游客需要增加 50%，才能使地区生产总值总增长的现贴现值大于该线路的建设成本。

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来源期刊

Asian Transport Studies

CiteScore

2.10

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0.00%

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