COVID-19 Death Risk in Surabaya: Modeling by Spatial Point Process

Abstract

The total death rate or Case Fatality Rate (CFR) due to COVID-19 in Surabaya is high, that is almost twice of the global CFR (1.4%). Utilization of high-resolution data has the potential to explore COVID-19 cases, not only recording cases at the district or city level but also at the patient’s domicile level so that they can provide more detailed spatial information. Meanwhile, research exploring the risk of death from COVID-19, especially in Surabaya using spatial point process model, has not yet been carried out. In this study, an analysis of the risk of death from COVID-19 in Surabaya will be carried out using the inhomogeneous Poisson point process model with covariates or external factors used including the density of the COVID-19 referral hospital location and the proportion of confirmed COVID-19 population aged > 60 years per districts. Our model shows that referral hospitals (exp( ) = 1.03295) and places of worship (exp( ) = 1.03835) have a significant effect on death risk from COVID-19. So, there is a need for special handling for areas that have a population with a vulnerable age (> 60 years) where at this age the human immune system will decrease. Keywords: COVID-19, heath risk, spatial point process, surabaya