Are cities ready for climate change? Exploring the spatial discrepancies between urban vulnerability and adaptation readiness

Abstract

Climate change is an increasingly severe global crisis, posing threats to ecosystems, economies, and human lives. To address these threats, different cities around the world have adopted various levels of adaptation strategies to cope with varying degrees of negative impact, such as increasing water efficiency and enhancing health response systems. Despite some progress, there is a spatial discrepancy among cities in terms of their vulnerability to climate change and their adaptation readiness. Uncovering the reasons behind this spatial discrepancy could help us formulate better policies to address climate issues. To this end, we conduct an empirical analysis using city response data from 2020, sourced from the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP), focusing on a dataset that encompasses 421 cities worldwide. Specifically, we first formulate a “vulnerability index” to measure the propensity of cities to suffer negative effects in the event of climate hazards and a “readiness index” to represent their adaptation readiness level. Then we introduce the “discrepancy score” to quantify discrepancies across cities and discover the spatial distribution of the discrepancies through spatial visualization. Further, we employ a clustering analysis method named k-means to group different cities based on vulnerability index and readiness index. Finally, we perform Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) to quantitatively analyze the spatial correlation between the economy and the discrepancy score of different cities. Our research mainly reveals several findings: (1) European cities tend to exhibit high levels of adaptation readiness with low degrees of vulnerability. In contrast, African cities consistently display heightened degrees of vulnerability combined with limited adaptation readiness. (2) Economic factors play a significant role in the spatial discrepancies between levels of adaptation readiness and degrees of vulnerability of cities; (3) The impact of the economy on the discrepancy scores exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity, with its influence being greater in European and African regions compared to other areas. Our study contributes both theoretically and practically to the comprehension of global climate change. It provides evidence-based support for the development of more effective climate change mitigation strategies and lays the foundation for fostering worldwide collaboration and initiatives.