Projections of the Adriatic wave conditions under climate changes

Abstract

Assessing the impact of climate change on wave conditions, including average and extreme waves, is vital for numerous marine-related activities, industries, coastal vulnerability, and marine habitats. Previous research, primarily on a large scale, has investigated this topic, but its relevance for marginal basins like the Adriatic Sea is limited due to the low resolution of the wave models used and atmospheric forcing. To contribute to filling in the gap, here we implemented a high-resolution model (about 2 km) for the period 1992–2050. The future wave climate is simulated for the RCP8.5 emission scenario. This model, developed within the AdriaClim project, comprises, among others, a high-resolution atmospheric downscaling, a circulation Limited Area Model and a spectral wave model. A comparison of our simulation's results with Copernicus Marine Service wave reanalysis on the historical baseline, confirms its accuracy in reproducing both average wave parameters and 95th percentile values, as well as the seasonal cycle, showing the AdriaClim model's suitability as a source to predict future wave climates in the Adriatic Sea. The projected changes suggest a slight increase in average significant wave height and mean wave period, and a more significant decrease at the 95th percentile, with a relevant variability by location and season, partially aligning with previous studies. This study highlights the potential effect of local climate change in coastal areas and the importance of developing long-term simulation with a downscaled modeling system for regional areas.