Changes in Northern Hemisphere extra-tropicalcyclone frequency following volcanic eruptions

Abstract

Explosive volcanic eruptions are well known to influence Earth’s temperature. Changes in Earth’s temperature can affect temperature gradients which in turn could affect the isentropic slope and hence Northern Hemisphere high and mid- latitude weather. Yet, the possible influence of volcanic eruptions on these atmospheric circulation patterns and the potential spatial extent are not well understood. To address this issue, we pursue two independent lines of evidence. Firstly, we simulate volcanic eruptions with the MPI-ESM1.2 Earth System Model and use the TRACK algorithm to explore how extra-tropical cyclone frequency is affected in the model experiments. Secondly, we query the Greenland ice core NEEM-2011-S1 for indications of increased Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical cyclone frequency correlating with evidence for explosive volcanism by comparing the storm proxies sodium (Na) and calcium (Ca); with the eruption proxy sulphur (S). Both the model and proxy evidence suggest that large explosive volcanic eruptions increase storminess around the location of the ice core. Furthermore, the simulations indicate that the number of extra-tropical cyclones increases in the subtropics and at high latitudes, while they decrease in the mid-latitudes. A detailed interrogation of the simulated eruptions reveals that increases in cyclone frequency are linked to steepening of the isentropic slope due to a larger meridional temperature gradient and to a lower tropopause. The steepening is driven by a combination of warming of the tropical stratosphere from absorption of longwave radiation by volcanic aerosols and surface cooling due to the scattering of sunlight by the same aerosols, whereas the lower tropopause may be attributed to a warmer stratosphere.