{"title":"Adopting agronomic strategies to enhance the adaptation of global rice production to future climate change: a meta-analysis","authors":"Saiya Li, Feng Wu, Qing Zhou, Yali Zhang","doi":"10.1007/s13593-024-00963-7","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The impact of climate change on rice yield varies among different rice varieties. Designing effective agronomic adaptation strategies is crucial for global rice provision. However, considerable uncertainty remains as to which approaches/strategies should be used in different regions. To this end, we conducted a meta-analysis aimed at quantifying firstly the marginal effects of climate change (i.e., temperature, precipitation, and CO<sub>2</sub>) and four adaptation strategies (i.e., changing varieties, adjusting fertilization, adjusting irrigation, and altering planting dates) on rice yield in Indica, Japonica, and Hybrid rice. We further assessed climate risks to rice yield and identified optimum adaptation strategies under three shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios. The results of the meta-analysis showed that temperature has the greatest negative marginal effect of −3.11% on rice yield, with changing varieties being the most effective strategy (15.93%) to counter this effect, followed by increased irrigation (0.24%). Projected climate scenarios predict a 2.11% global average rice yield decrease in the 2040s under SSP5-8.5. Japonica rice yields are significantly more pessimistic than Indica and Hybrid rice. To offset this, 86.48% of the rice planting area would need to change varieties; increase fertilization and irrigation by 51.22% and 8.54%, respectively; or plant in advance by 13 days. Major rice-producing countries such as India, China, and Brazil will need adaptation strategies with higher urgency and scale than the global average. These findings form a basis for a better understanding of climate resilience in different rice varieties and agronomic strategies. Our analysis suggests that it is possible for future rice yield to meet the needs of rice-growing countries while supporting eco-friendly rice production if the appropriate measures are taken. Overall, this study attempts firstly to design effective agronomic adaptation strategies to enhance rice production resilience against climate change and advance understanding of rice varietal adaptation for improved management.</p><h3>Graphical abstract</h3>\n<div><figure><div><div><picture><source><img></source></picture></div></div></figure></div></div>","PeriodicalId":7721,"journal":{"name":"Agronomy for Sustainable Development","volume":"44 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Agronomy for Sustainable Development","FirstCategoryId":"97","ListUrlMain":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13593-024-00963-7","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"AGRONOMY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The impact of climate change on rice yield varies among different rice varieties. Designing effective agronomic adaptation strategies is crucial for global rice provision. However, considerable uncertainty remains as to which approaches/strategies should be used in different regions. To this end, we conducted a meta-analysis aimed at quantifying firstly the marginal effects of climate change (i.e., temperature, precipitation, and CO2) and four adaptation strategies (i.e., changing varieties, adjusting fertilization, adjusting irrigation, and altering planting dates) on rice yield in Indica, Japonica, and Hybrid rice. We further assessed climate risks to rice yield and identified optimum adaptation strategies under three shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios. The results of the meta-analysis showed that temperature has the greatest negative marginal effect of −3.11% on rice yield, with changing varieties being the most effective strategy (15.93%) to counter this effect, followed by increased irrigation (0.24%). Projected climate scenarios predict a 2.11% global average rice yield decrease in the 2040s under SSP5-8.5. Japonica rice yields are significantly more pessimistic than Indica and Hybrid rice. To offset this, 86.48% of the rice planting area would need to change varieties; increase fertilization and irrigation by 51.22% and 8.54%, respectively; or plant in advance by 13 days. Major rice-producing countries such as India, China, and Brazil will need adaptation strategies with higher urgency and scale than the global average. These findings form a basis for a better understanding of climate resilience in different rice varieties and agronomic strategies. Our analysis suggests that it is possible for future rice yield to meet the needs of rice-growing countries while supporting eco-friendly rice production if the appropriate measures are taken. Overall, this study attempts firstly to design effective agronomic adaptation strategies to enhance rice production resilience against climate change and advance understanding of rice varietal adaptation for improved management.
期刊介绍:
Agronomy for Sustainable Development (ASD) is a peer-reviewed scientific journal of international scope, dedicated to publishing original research articles, review articles, and meta-analyses aimed at improving sustainability in agricultural and food systems. The journal serves as a bridge between agronomy, cropping, and farming system research and various other disciplines including ecology, genetics, economics, and social sciences.
ASD encourages studies in agroecology, participatory research, and interdisciplinary approaches, with a focus on systems thinking applied at different scales from field to global levels.
Research articles published in ASD should present significant scientific advancements compared to existing knowledge, within an international context. Review articles should critically evaluate emerging topics, and opinion papers may also be submitted as reviews. Meta-analysis articles should provide clear contributions to resolving widely debated scientific questions.