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A conceptual framework for simultaneous optimization of integrated climate scenario data and phenology models 同时优化综合气候情景数据和物候模式的概念框架
IF 6.7 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY Pub Date : 2026-03-12 DOI: 10.1007/s13593-026-01091-0
Flavian Tschurr, Sven Kotlarski, Pierre Martre, Achim Walter, Lukas Roth

Climate-resilient crop varieties are exceedingly important for global food security. High-accuracy predictions of crop phenology in future climate scenarios require a more precise description of putative crop-environment interactions. While the accuracy of these predictions is affected by three primary sources of uncertainty — the phenology model, the climate scenario data, and their interaction — commonly used approaches consider only the phenology model as a source of uncertainty, while uncertainties arising from climate scenario data and their interaction with the model are commonly neglected. To address this gap, we developed a novel dynamic crop phenology model framework that simultaneously integrates uncertainties arising from all three sources. This model framework was developed using a large dataset of winter wheat phenology ratings and environmental covariate observations, encompassing more than 2500 locations spanning more than 80 years. It incorporates and combines up to seven environmental covariates in an additive manner, resulting in a large set of possible models from which to select. For each model, the phenological development follows a defined response curve per environmental covariate. Using climate scenario projections in Switzerland, our proposed effective model selection process helps to find the best model that reduces uncertainties in predicting future crop phenology. In addition to predictions, the model can pinpoint the driving environmental covariates for different phenological phases. Four major phenological stages are predicted for an independent subset of the large dataset and future climate scenario projections. Predictions for future climate scenario projections indicate a 22-day earlier heading for 2070–2099 compared to the reference period (1981–2010). Ignoring uncertainties arising from climate data results in contradictory predictions. These findings underscore the importance of considering all three uncertainty sources — phenology model, climate scenario data, and their interaction — in accurately predicting phenology under future climates.

适应气候变化的作物品种对全球粮食安全极为重要。对未来气候情景下作物物候的高精度预测需要对假定的作物-环境相互作用进行更精确的描述。虽然这些预测的准确性受到三个主要不确定性来源的影响,即物候模型、气候情景数据及其相互作用,但常用的方法只将物候模型视为不确定性来源,而气候情景数据及其与模式的相互作用所产生的不确定性通常被忽视。为了解决这一差距,我们开发了一个新的动态作物物候模型框架,同时整合了这三个来源的不确定性。该模型框架是使用冬小麦物候等级和环境协变量观测的大型数据集开发的,包括超过2500个地点,跨越80多年。它以一种累加的方式合并并结合了多达七个环境协变量,从而产生了一组可供选择的可能模型。对于每个模型,物候发展遵循每个环境协变量定义的响应曲线。利用瑞士的气候情景预测,我们提出的有效模型选择过程有助于找到最佳模型,减少预测未来作物物候的不确定性。除了预测外,该模型还可以精确定位不同物候阶段的驱动环境协变量。对大型数据集的一个独立子集和未来气候情景预估进行了四个主要物候阶段的预测。对未来气候情景预估的预测表明,与参考期(1981-2010年)相比,2070-2099年的趋势提前了22天。忽视气候数据带来的不确定性会导致相互矛盾的预测。这些发现强调了考虑所有三个不确定性来源——物候模型、气候情景数据及其相互作用——在准确预测未来气候条件下物候的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Optimizing straw return management to suppress plant disease and promote plant growth. A meta-analysis 优化秸秆还田管理,抑制植物病害,促进植物生长。一个荟萃分析
IF 6.7 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY Pub Date : 2026-03-03 DOI: 10.1007/s13593-026-01094-x
Dezhi Chen, Yanzhong Yao, Daiwei Liu, Wenbao Wang, Binnian Tian, Anfei Fang, Yang Yu, Chaowei Bi, Ran Xiao, Zhaolei Li, Yuheng Yang

Straw return improves soil and nutrient cycling but may aggravate diseases if mismanaged. However, the comprehensive impact of different straw return methods on plant diseases remains unclear. This study aims to clarify the effects of straw return on plant diseases and explore appropriate straw return methods. This study evaluated the effect of straw return on the reduction of plant diseases by summarizing 1352 pairs of observations from 165 peer-reviewed publications. It further analyzed the effects of straw return conditions, disease types, and plant species on plant diseases. Overall, the study’s findings showed that, with significant variation among return treatments, straw return reduced plant disease severity by 40.55% and increased plant biomass by 29.05%. Direct straw return of different crops, along with the application of biochar and compost, reduce plant disease severity by 21.89%, 43.67%, and 53.09%, while increasing plant growth by 14.91%, 21.05%, and 66.20%, respectively. The fact that the direct straw return of same crops significantly reduced plant growth by 5.73% and increased plant disease severity by 34.31% is concerning. Research indicates that the most significant suppression of economic crop diseases occurs when the direct straw return of different crops application rate was 0–25%, the return depth was 0–20 cm, and the application duration was within 1 year. Straw biochar produced at temperatures below 350 °C exhibits the strongest suppression of cereal crop diseases when applied at a rate of 1–3%. Moreover, when the application rate of straw compost exceeds 20%, it can effectively suppress diseases in trees and cash crops. Applying straw after pretreatment can reduce crop diseases. This study provides a basis for integrated application of direct straw return with biochar and compost, facilitating sustainable agriculture and global utilization of organic agricultural waste.

秸秆还田可以改善土壤和养分循环,但如果管理不善,可能会加重疾病。然而,不同秸秆还田方式对植物病害的综合影响尚不清楚。本研究旨在阐明秸秆还田对植物病害的影响,探索适宜的秸秆还田方法。本研究通过总结来自165篇同行评议出版物的1352对观察结果,评估了秸秆还田对减少植物病害的影响。进一步分析了秸秆还田条件、病害类型和植物种类对植物病害的影响。总体而言,研究结果表明,秸秆还林使植物病害严重程度降低了40.55%,使植物生物量增加了29.05%,各还林处理间差异显著。不同作物秸秆直接还田,同时施用生物炭和堆肥,使植物病害严重程度分别降低21.89%、43.67%和53.09%,植株生长分别提高14.91%、21.05%和66.20%。同一作物秸秆直接还田显著降低植株生长5.73%,显著提高植株病害严重程度34.31%,令人担忧。研究表明,当不同作物秸秆直接还田施用量为0 ~ 25%,还田深度为0 ~ 20 cm,施肥期在1年以内时,对经济作物病害的抑制效果最为显著。在低于350°C的温度下生产的秸秆生物炭,当用量为1-3%时,对谷类作物病害的抑制作用最强。秸秆堆肥施用量超过20%时,可有效抑制树木和经济作物病害。预处理后施用秸秆可减少作物病害。本研究为秸秆直接还田与生物炭和堆肥的综合应用,促进农业可持续发展和有机农业废弃物的全球利用提供了基础。
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引用次数: 0
Co-designing a research agenda for UK agroforestry using a multi-actor approach 使用多参与者方法共同设计英国农林业研究议程
IF 6.7 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY Pub Date : 2026-02-27 DOI: 10.1007/s13593-026-01089-8
Amelia S. C. Hood, Rosy E. Scholes, Erika Degani, Tom Staton, Alexa Varah, Kate Beauchamp, Alice Broome, Paul Burgess, Helen Chesshire, Edward P. Colbert, Emma Loder-Symonds, James Ramskir-Gardiner, Ann C. Rayner, Colin Tosh, Alice L. Mauchline, Rosemary Venn

There is growing recognition of agroforestry’s potential to help mitigate and provide resilience to the climate and biodiversity crises. Beyond its environmental benefits, agroforestry can also enhance production and profits, making it a sustainable farming solution that is scalable. Despite this, uptake within Europe is low, and many knowledge gaps remain that need to be addressed to promote adoption and optimize the management and implementation of agroforestry systems. We co-developed a research agenda for agroforestry using a multi-actor approach and a modified Delphi method in 2023. 156 UK-based stakeholders contributed to this process, including farmers, advisors, policy makers, NGOs, and researchers. An initial list of 238 research priorities (high-priority research questions) was submitted via a survey and a workshop. This was shortened during a second workshop with 48 participants. The final list included 40 research priorities across the themes “environment and production,” “human livelihoods, knowledge, and perceptions,” and “policy, financing, and markets.” There was high agreement about which priorities to include, with questions on policy incentives, knowledge-exchange, agroforestry design (e.g., tree/crop selection), biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, well-being, markets, and food security. We identified a need for landscape-scale and longer-term research. Our agenda is a rare example of a research-prioritization process that includes farmers and other agricultural stakeholders throughout the research process. The value of this approach can be seen in the inclusion of research priorities that are grounded in the real world and relevant to different actors. Our agenda goes beyond existing evidence syntheses in scope, and should be used alongside them to identify stakeholder-relevant gaps for future primary research and evidence synthesis. By guiding researchers and funding bodies to impactful areas of enquiry, it can promote evidence-based agroforestry practice and policy. Addressing this research agenda requires better support for long-term, transdisciplinary, multi-stakeholder research, and funded demonstration sites or living labs.

人们越来越认识到农林业有助于缓解气候和生物多样性危机并提供抵御力的潜力。除了环境效益外,农林业还可以提高产量和利润,使其成为可扩展的可持续农业解决方案。尽管如此,欧洲内部的吸收程度很低,仍然存在许多知识空白,需要解决这些空白,以促进采用和优化农林业系统的管理和实施。我们在2023年使用多参与者方法和改进的德尔菲方法共同制定了农林业研究议程。156名来自英国的利益相关者参与了这一进程,包括农民、顾问、政策制定者、非政府组织和研究人员。通过调查和讲习班提交了238项研究优先事项(高优先研究问题)的初步清单。在第二次有48名参与者的研讨会期间,这一时间缩短了。最终的名单包括40个研究重点,主题包括“环境与生产”、“人类生计、知识和观念”以及“政策、融资和市场”。关于应包括哪些优先事项的问题,在政策激励、知识交流、农林业设计(例如树木/作物选择)、生物多样性、生态系统功能、福祉、市场和粮食安全等方面达成了高度一致。我们确定需要进行景观规模和长期研究。我们的议程是一个罕见的研究优先排序过程的例子,在整个研究过程中包括农民和其他农业利益相关者。这种方法的价值可以从纳入基于现实世界并与不同行为者相关的研究优先事项中看出。我们的议程超出了现有证据综合的范围,并应与它们一起使用,以确定与利益攸关方相关的差距,以便将来进行初步研究和证据综合。通过引导研究人员和资助机构进入有影响的研究领域,它可以促进以证据为基础的农林业实践和政策。解决这一研究议程需要更好地支持长期的、跨学科的、多方利益相关者的研究和资助的示范地点或生活实验室。
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引用次数: 0
Implementation of practices shapes the effectiveness of agricultural diversification for arthropod related ecosystem services: a meta-analysis 实践的实施塑造了节肢动物相关生态系统服务农业多样化的有效性:一项荟萃分析
IF 6.7 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY Pub Date : 2026-02-26 DOI: 10.1007/s13593-025-01082-7
Gaëtan Seimandi-Corda, Chloe MacLaren, Kevin Tougeron, Johannes Forkman, Jess Hood, Andrew Mead, Amelia Dixon, Samantha M. Cook

Agricultural intensification has increased food production but has also caused significant environmental degradation and biodiversity loss. Diversification practices can mitigate these impacts while sustaining yields. While previous meta-analyses have examined their effects on arthropod populations and associated ecosystem services, focusing on individual practices or treating them as a whole, this is the first study to compare a wide range of diversification strategies across specific arthropod groups and assess how management factors, such as plant diversity, spatial configuration, and sowing time, modulate their outcome. Clarifying these mechanisms is crucial for optimizing diversification practices and enhancing their adoption by farmers. We conducted the most up-to-date and comprehensive meta-analysis to evaluate the effects of four diversification practices (agroforestry, intercropping, flower resource addition, and maintaining semi-natural habitats) on arthropods (parasitoids, predators, pollinators, and herbivores), their associated ecosystem services (predation, parasitism, pollination), and disservices (herbivory), using 19,421 data points from 449 publications. On average, all diversification practices increased beneficial arthropod populations and their services by 41%, compared to a non-diverse control, and reduced herbivore abundance and plant damage by 33%. Intercropping was particularly effective, reducing herbivore abundance and damage by 39% and 30%, respectively, while increasing predator and parasitoid populations by 48% and 56%. Other practices showed no consistent effects, likely due to high variability across studies. For the first time, we tested the influence of management factors and found complex effects on parasitoid abundance and parasitism, highlighting the need for context-specific approaches. These results highlight the importance of tailored policies and targeted research to support the adoption of diversification practices. Effective implementation can reduce reliance on insecticides while simultaneously promoting ecosystem services and supporting the transition to sustainable agricultural systems.

农业集约化提高了粮食产量,但也造成了严重的环境退化和生物多样性丧失。多样化做法可以减轻这些影响,同时保持产量。虽然之前的荟萃分析研究了它们对节肢动物种群和相关生态系统服务的影响,但重点关注个体实践或将其视为一个整体,这是第一次比较特定节肢动物群体的广泛多样化策略,并评估管理因素(如植物多样性、空间配置和播种时间)如何调节其结果。澄清这些机制对于优化多样化做法和促进农民采用这些做法至关重要。作者利用来自449份出版物的19421个数据点,对四种多样化做法(农林复合、间作、增加花资源和维持半自然栖息地)对节肢动物(拟寄生物、捕食者、传粉者和食草动物)及其相关生态系统服务(捕食、寄生、授粉)和危害(食草)的影响进行了最新和全面的meta分析。平均而言,与非多样化对照相比,所有多样化做法使有益节肢动物种群及其服务增加了41%,并使草食动物丰度和植物损害减少了33%。间作特别有效,草食性动物的丰度和危害分别减少39%和30%,而捕食者和寄生性动物的数量分别增加48%和56%。其他做法没有显示出一致的效果,可能是由于研究之间的高度可变性。我们首次测试了管理因素的影响,发现了对寄生蜂丰度和寄生率的复杂影响,强调了针对具体情况采取措施的必要性。这些结果突出了有针对性的政策和有针对性的研究对支持采用多样化做法的重要性。有效实施可减少对杀虫剂的依赖,同时促进生态系统服务并支持向可持续农业系统过渡。
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引用次数: 0
Sustainable agricultural practices shape the weed seed bank. A meta-analysis 可持续农业实践塑造了杂草种子库。一个荟萃分析
IF 6.7 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY Pub Date : 2026-02-25 DOI: 10.1007/s13593-026-01090-1
Shanheng Shi, Wen Yin, Furong Niu, Xiaogang Yin, Yafei Shi

The seed bank is a crucial component of weed populations and a key factor in determining future weed infestations in arable fields. Sustainable agricultural practices have been widely promoted as environmentally friendly cultivation methods and have significant impacts on the seed bank. But the effects of sustainable agricultural practices on the seed bank remain inconclusive, posing challenges to the development of effective and precise weed management strategies. To address this uncertainty, we collected 1,604 experimental records from 146 publications and carried out a meta-analysis to quantitatively assess the effects of five sustainable agricultural practices on weed seed banks. Results showed that the average impacts of cover cropping, intercropping, reduced tillage, residue return and rotation on the seed bank density were -49%, -44%, 33%, -22%, and -18%, respectively. And the average impacts of these five practices on the seed bank species richness were -5%, -12%, 14%, 3%, and -11%, respectively. Cover cropping and intercropping reduced the density proportion of dominant weed seeds compared to the control group. The impact of sustainable agricultural practices on the seed bank varied across agricultural systems (e.g., paddy vs non-paddy fields) and management practices (e.g., residue return rates). Further analysis suggested that combining reduced tillage with other practices could mitigate its associated increase in seed bank density, with potential additive effects when multiple practices are simultaneously applied. This is the first comprehensive analysis of the impacts of common sustainable agricultural practices on weed seed density and species richness of the weed seed bank, and provides a reference for sustainable weed management strategies at the farm scale from the perspective of the seed bank.

种子库是杂草种群的重要组成部分,也是决定未来耕地杂草侵染的关键因素。可持续农业实践作为一种环境友好型耕作方法得到了广泛推广,并对种子库产生了重大影响。但是,可持续农业实践对种子库的影响仍然没有定论,这对制定有效和精确的杂草管理策略提出了挑战。为了解决这一不确定性,我们从146份出版物中收集了1604份实验记录,并进行了荟萃分析,定量评估了五种可持续农业实践对杂草种子库的影响。结果表明:封种、间作、免耕、还田和轮作对种子库密度的平均影响分别为-49%、-44%、33%、-22%和-18%。5种措施对种子库物种丰富度的平均影响分别为-5%、-12%、14%、3%和-11%。与对照组相比,覆盖和间作降低了优势杂草种子的密度比例。可持续农业实践对种子库的影响因农业系统(如水田与非水田)和管理实践(如残留物回报率)而异。进一步分析表明,将减量耕作与其他耕作方式相结合,可以缓解相应的种子库密度增加,并在多种耕作方式同时施用时产生潜在的加性效应。本文首次综合分析了常见可持续农业实践对农田杂草种子密度和种子库物种丰富度的影响,并从种子库的角度为农田规模的可持续杂草管理策略提供参考。
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引用次数: 0
Pragmatic principles for supporting the agroecological transition in the field: a review 支持农业生态转型的实用原则:综述
IF 6.7 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY Pub Date : 2026-02-25 DOI: 10.1007/s13593-026-01092-z
Laurent Hazard, Maarten Crivits, Alain Ducos, Alix Levain, Marie-Benoit Magrini, Chloé Salembier

The agroecological transition of agriculture is slow despite the wealth of knowledge produced to support it. Given the complexity and uncertainty of changing situations, the deterministic approach aimed at defining ideal transition pathways to speed up the transition seems fruitless to us. Our view is that paths are made by walking, tracing a singular route that depends on the surprises that arise. However, actors are currently not equipped to march into the unknown, a march toward greater sustainability. The challenge is to equip actors to implement agroecological principles in local, changing, complex, and uncertain situations. To this end, we propose 10 principles drawn from an argued review of pragmatic philosophy and formulated on the basis of 16 years’ experience in participatory research with French farmers in agroecological transition in the Roquefort area. Pragmatic philosophy is a theory of action rooted in a democratic ideal. It offers a universal, normative and coherent framework for conducting individual, and collective inquiries to establish what is possible, what works, and what is desirable in a situation of change. The 10 pragmatic principles we propose will enable farmers, intermediaries and consumers to create sustainable production and consumption practices. They will also be useful for those who accompany them in the transition, such as advisors, researchers, sales representatives, and employees of local authorities. Pragmatism represents a paradigm shift away from the project logic and planning that currently dominate change management. Such a shift must be accompanied by in-depth education to develop the collective skills needed to envision that another world is possible, to manage complexity and uncertainty, by being able to deliberate democratically and cooperate in action.

农业的农业生态转型是缓慢的,尽管产生了丰富的知识来支持它。鉴于不断变化的局势的复杂性和不确定性,旨在确定理想的过渡途径以加速过渡的确定性方法对我们来说似乎是徒劳的。我们的观点是,路径是通过行走形成的,沿着一条单一的路线,这取决于出现的惊喜。然而,行动者目前还没有准备好进军未知领域,迈向更大的可持续性。面临的挑战是使行为者能够在当地、不断变化的、复杂的和不确定的情况下实施农业生态原则。为此,我们提出了10条原则,这些原则来自于对实用主义哲学的有争议的回顾,并基于对法国农民在罗克福地区农业生态转型中的16年参与式研究经验而制定。实用主义哲学是一种植根于民主理想的行动理论。它提供了一个普遍、规范和连贯的框架,用于进行个人和集体调查,以确定在变化的情况下什么是可能的、什么是有效的和什么是可取的。我们提出的10项实用原则将使农民、中间商和消费者能够创造可持续的生产和消费方式。对于那些在过渡期间陪伴他们的人,如顾问、研究人员、销售代表和地方当局的雇员,他们也会很有用。实用主义代表了一种从当前主导变更管理的项目逻辑和计划的范式转变。这种转变必须伴随着深入的教育,以发展设想另一个世界的可能性所需的集体技能,通过能够民主地审议和在行动中合作来管理复杂性和不确定性。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluation of pesticide reduction strategies in cropping systems. A review 作物系统农药减量策略评价。回顾
IF 6.7 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY Pub Date : 2026-02-25 DOI: 10.1007/s13593-026-01086-x
Han Zhang, David Makowski

The unsustainable and excessive use of pesticides in agriculture causes multi-faceted environmental and human health problems worldwide. Numerous strategies have been proposed to reduce pesticide use; however, the knowledge regarding their performance is scattered. To move forward, it is crucial to evaluate pesticide reduction strategies and identify the most efficient ones. The objective of this work is to globally synthesize published literature on pesticide reduction strategies in order to describe their main characteristics and assess their performances across a wide range of indicators. Based on a systematic review of ten papers from the secondary literature involving generalized linear mixed-effect models and text mining techniques, we reviewed 97 primary research papers reporting 135 studies assessing pesticide reduction strategies. Sixteen types of individual strategy were identified, among which the most investigated strategies were site-specific pesticide application, physical/mechanical control, and advanced machinery. Herbicide was the most studied pesticide group regarding pesticide reduction. The most frequent method used to assess pesticide reduction strategies was field experiment (83%). Fifty-one indicators reflecting the impacts of pesticide reduction strategies were grouped into four categories: economic output, pest control efficacy, pesticide related input, and side effects. Pesticide reduction strategies had a higher likelihood to reduce pesticide input and side effects than to improve economic output and pest control efficacy. The primary literature was then allocated to two main topics: topic 1 includes weed management in cereals, and topic 2 concerns insect and disease management in fruits. Studies focusing on topic 2 and studies combining several pesticide reduction strategies had higher probabilities to report positive effects from pesticide reduction strategies than topic 1 and single strategies, respectively. We also found that organic systems produce more positive results than low-input systems, especially regarding side effects.

农业中不可持续和过度使用农药在世界范围内造成多方面的环境和人类健康问题。已经提出了许多减少农药使用的策略;然而,关于他们的表现的知识是分散的。为了向前推进,至关重要的是评估农药减少策略并确定最有效的策略。这项工作的目的是在全球范围内综合有关农药减少战略的已发表文献,以描述其主要特征并通过广泛的指标评估其表现。在系统回顾了10篇涉及广义线性混合效应模型和文本挖掘技术的二手文献的基础上,我们回顾了97篇主要研究论文,报告了135项评估农药减少策略的研究。共鉴定出16种个体策略,其中研究最多的策略是定点施药、物理/机械控制和先进机械。在农药减量方面,除草剂是研究最多的一类农药。评估农药减量策略最常用的方法是田间试验(83%)。51项指标反映了农药减少战略的影响,分为四类:经济产出、虫害防治效果、农药相关投入和副作用。农药减量策略更有可能减少农药投入和副作用,而不是提高经济产出和害虫防治效果。原始文献随后被分配到两个主要主题:主题1包括谷物杂草管理,主题2涉及水果昆虫和疾病管理。关注主题2的研究和结合几种农药减少策略的研究分别比主题1和单一策略报告农药减少策略的积极影响的概率更高。我们还发现,有机系统比低投入系统产生更积极的结果,特别是在副作用方面。
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引用次数: 0
Clarifying factors involved in historical soybean yield suppression in Japan using national statistics and a crop model 利用国家统计数据和作物模型澄清日本历史大豆产量抑制的因素
IF 6.7 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY Pub Date : 2026-02-23 DOI: 10.1007/s13593-025-01078-3
Sohei Kobayashi, Yoji Kunimitsu, Satoshi Nakano

Soybean yields have remained below 2.0 t ha−1 for over 30 years in Asian countries; however, few studies have analyzed national statistical data in detail to explore the underlying factors. This is the first study to analyze precisely and comprehensively factors involved in the historical soybean yield suppression in Japan by using national production-cost and other statistics, coupled with a crop model. Panel data of 5–6 land-size sections for 1987–2018 were prepared to analyze the regression of actual yield against 13 production input-related variables, model-predicted potential yield, and agricultural social capital score by each data class for the whole country (i.e., Japan), two climatic regions (temperate and subarctic), and two field types (converted paddy and upland). Although potential yield rose by 8% for the studied 32 years at the country/national level, actual yield declined by 18%, and this was primarily attributed to trends in converted paddy fields in the temperate region. Panel regression analyses showed that for this field type and region, a total of 14–21% actual yield reduction occurred with decreased water management input, as well as increases in weed control failure and converted paddy fields, resulting in a 16% reduction at the country level. In contrast, the increased potential yield, mainly due to climatic changes (warming), contributed to improving actual yields by 7–8% in the region and country, thereby partially offsetting the above yield reduction. Against our expectation, no actual yield improvement was observed with increased agricultural social capital score, but rather a 19% reduction for the country. Implications of the results for policymakers and scientists aiming to improve country-level soybean yields in Japan were discussed, as well as the importance of potential yield as an explanatory variable and that of spatial error model for panel data of land-size sections.

30多年来,亚洲国家的大豆产量一直保持在2.0吨/公顷以下;然而,很少有研究对国家统计数据进行详细分析,以探讨其潜在因素。这是第一个利用国家生产成本等统计数据,结合作物模型,精确、全面地分析日本大豆历史减产因素的研究。准备了1987-2018年5-6个土地面积区段的面板数据,分析了全国(即日本)、两个气候区(温带和亚北极)和两种田型(转耕水田和旱地)的实际产量与13个生产投入相关变量、模型预测潜在产量和农业社会资本得分的回归。在研究的32年中,虽然潜在产量在国家/国家一级增加了8%,但实际产量下降了18%,这主要归因于温带地区转化稻田的趋势。面板回归分析显示,对于该类型和区域,随着水管理投入的减少,以及杂草控制失败和水田改造的增加,实际产量减少了14-21%,导致国家一级的产量减少了16%。相比之下,主要由于气候变化(变暖)而增加的潜在产量使该地区和国家的实际产量提高了7-8%,从而部分抵消了上述减产。与我们的预期相反,农业社会资本得分的增加并没有实际提高产量,反而使该国的产量下降了19%。研究结果对旨在提高日本国家级大豆产量的政策制定者和科学家的意义进行了讨论,并讨论了潜在产量作为解释变量的重要性,以及土地大小断面面板数据的空间误差模型的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
A 7-year multi-criteria analysis of sugarcane intercropping compared to conventional cropping systems 甘蔗间作与常规种植制度的7年多指标分析
IF 6.7 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY Pub Date : 2026-02-16 DOI: 10.1007/s13593-026-01085-y
Mathias Christina, Julien Chetty, Aude Ripoche, Antoine Versini, Karim Barkaoui, Benjamin Heuclin, Marion Schwartz, Sacha Delmotte, Sandrine Auzoux, Alizé Mansuy

Long-term studies are crucial for evaluating how intercropping affects the agronomic, environmental, and socio-economic sustainability of sugarcane systems. Intercropping with cover crops is expected to improve soil fertility and reduce herbicide use; however, its long-term effects on yield, weed dynamics, and production costs remain unclear, particularly under tropical conditions. Weed pressure has been hypothesized to drive yield decline over time, yet the temporal evolution of weed communities and their consequences for system sustainability remain poorly understood. We hypothesized that intercropping would modify ecosystem functions and services by increasing weed diversity and soil fertility, reducing herbicide use, and also increasing labor and production costs. To test this hypothesis, we conducted the first 7-year field experiment on Reunion Island, comparing four sugarcane intercropping systems with conventional chemical and low weed control systems. A multi-criteria approach assessed weed community dynamics, soil fertility, sugarcane yield and quality, herbicide use, labor, and economic performance over a complete crop cycle, including multiple ratoons. We show that weed pressure increased over time in both chemical and intercropping systems due to greater weed cover and species richness. Weed community structure differed during the first 3 years but later homogenized under sugarcane dominance. This increase led to more manual weeding in intercropping systems and to increased herbicide use in chemical ones, resulting in a 61% reduction in herbicide use under intercropping. After 7 years, soil chemical and biological fertility remained unchanged, while physical fertility improved with companion crop and weed development. Sugarcane yield and sucrose content were maintained, but production costs and working hours increased. This study demonstrates that sugarcane intercropping reduces herbicide dependence without compromising yield, though at higher labor costs. Systems maintaining spontaneous flora in inter-rows appear to offer a promising compromise for sustainable weed management. Further research on this system should be conducted in different pedoclimatic conditions.

长期研究对于评估间作如何影响甘蔗系统的农艺、环境和社会经济可持续性至关重要。间作覆盖作物有望提高土壤肥力,减少除草剂的使用;然而,其对产量、杂草动态和生产成本的长期影响尚不清楚,特别是在热带条件下。杂草压力已经被假设为随着时间的推移导致产量下降,但杂草群落的时间演变及其对系统可持续性的影响仍然知之甚少。我们假设间作可以通过增加杂草多样性和土壤肥力、减少除草剂的使用以及增加劳动力和生产成本来改变生态系统的功能和服务。为了验证这一假设,我们在留尼旺岛进行了第一次为期7年的田间试验,比较了四种甘蔗间作系统与常规化学和低杂草控制系统的差异。一种多标准方法评估了杂草群落动态、土壤肥力、甘蔗产量和质量、除草剂使用、劳动力和整个作物周期(包括多个周期)的经济表现。我们发现,在化学和间作系统中,由于杂草覆盖和物种丰富度增加,杂草压力随着时间的推移而增加。甘蔗优势下,前3年杂草群落结构存在差异,但随后趋于均一化。这一增长导致间作系统中人工除草增多,化学间作系统中除草剂使用量增加,导致间作系统中除草剂使用量减少61%。7年后,土壤化学和生物肥力基本保持不变,物理肥力随着伴生作物和杂草的生长而提高。甘蔗产量和含糖量保持不变,但生产成本和工时增加。这项研究表明,甘蔗间作在不影响产量的情况下减少了对除草剂的依赖,尽管劳动力成本较高。维持行间自发植物群的系统似乎为可持续杂草管理提供了一个有希望的妥协方案。对该系统的进一步研究应在不同的气候条件下进行。
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引用次数: 0
Overcoming yield gaps in organic and biodynamic viticulture: insights from an 18-year field trial 克服有机和生物动力葡萄栽培的产量差距:来自18年田间试验的见解
IF 6.7 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY Pub Date : 2026-02-12 DOI: 10.1007/s13593-025-01079-2
Johanna Döring, Katharina Steng, Yvette Wohlfahrt, Georg Meißner, Matthias Friedel, Mathias Scheidweiler, Manfred Stoll, Marco Hofmann, Randolf Kauer

Addressing environmental degradation and fostering agricultural sustainability are critical challenges of the twenty-first century. Agroecological practices such as organic and biodynamic farming are vital for transforming agriculture and enhancing ecosystem services by avoiding synthetic inputs. While often criticized for lower yields, little is known about how these systems adapt and perform over extended periods under varying climatic conditions, particularly for perennial crops such as grapevines. This represents a major knowledge gap, as understanding their long-term adaptive capacity is essential for designing resilient and sustainable production systems under climate change. This 18-year field trial in Geisenheim, Germany, addresses this gap by assessing the long-term effects of organic, biodynamic, and integrated management on Vitis vinifera cv. Riesling. It represents the only long-term study on perennial crops to systematically compare these systems’ impact on agronomic parameters, plant performance, and grape quality, observing their evolution post-conversion and response to climatic variability. Initially, organic (−17%) and biodynamic (−14%) systems showed lower yields and reduced vine vigor compared to integrated management. However, yield gaps narrowed significantly after approximately a decade. Change point analysis revealed improved relative yields in organic and biodynamic plots 8–9 years after conversion, accompanied by stable or improved Ravaz index values. Notably, in hot, dry vintages, organic and biodynamic systems exhibited enhanced yield effect sizes (+2.3% and +9.0%, respectively) and increased yeast-available nitrogen. Conversely, yield gaps persisted in cooler, wetter vintages, likely due to pathogen-induced losses. Nutrient deficiencies were not the primary cause of initial yield reductions, and grape quality parameters showed minimal treatment differences. These long-term findings demonstrate that organic and biodynamic viticulture can overcome initial yield deficits and potentially outperform integrated management under increasingly warm, dry conditions. The results highlight the adaptive capacity and climate resilience of agroecological systems, offering a sustainable path for future perennial agriculture.

应对环境退化和促进农业可持续性是21世纪的重大挑战。有机农业和生物动力农业等生态农业实践对于通过避免合成投入品实现农业转型和加强生态系统服务至关重要。虽然经常因产量低而受到批评,但人们对这些系统如何在不同气候条件下长期适应和表现知之甚少,特别是对于葡萄藤等多年生作物。这是一个重大的知识缺口,因为了解它们的长期适应能力对于设计气候变化下有弹性和可持续的生产系统至关重要。这项在德国Geisenheim进行的为期18年的田间试验,通过评估有机、生物动力和综合管理对葡萄的长期影响,解决了这一差距。雷司令。这是唯一一项对多年生作物的长期研究,系统地比较了这些系统对农艺参数、植物性能和葡萄质量的影响,观察了它们在转化后的演变和对气候变化的响应。最初,与综合管理相比,有机(- 17%)和生物动力(- 14%)系统表现出较低的产量和葡萄活力。然而,大约十年后,收益率差距明显缩小。变化点分析显示,转化后8-9年,有机和生物动力地块的相对产量有所提高,Ravaz指数保持稳定或有所提高。值得注意的是,在炎热和干燥的年份,有机和生物动力系统表现出更高的产量效应大小(分别为+2.3%和+9.0%),并增加了酵母有效氮。相反,在较冷、较湿的年份,产量差距持续存在,可能是由于病原体引起的损失。营养不足并不是导致产量下降的主要原因,而且葡萄的品质参数显示出最小的处理差异。这些长期研究结果表明,有机和生物动力葡萄栽培可以克服最初的产量不足,并有可能在日益温暖、干燥的条件下优于综合管理。研究结果强调了农业生态系统的适应能力和气候适应能力,为未来多年生农业提供了可持续发展的途径。
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引用次数: 0
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